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Zhongtai Futures Co (HKSE:01461) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.10% (As of Dec. 15, 2024)


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What is Zhongtai Futures Co Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Zhongtai Futures Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.10%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Zhongtai Futures Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Capital Markets subindustry, Zhongtai Futures Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Zhongtai Futures Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Capital Markets Industry

For the Capital Markets industry and Financial Services sector, Zhongtai Futures Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Zhongtai Futures Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Zhongtai Futures Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-6.88

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.10%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:


4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Zhongtai Futures Co  (HKSE:01461) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Zhongtai Futures Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Zhongtai Futures Co Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 86 Jingqi Road, 15th-16th Floor, Securities Tower, Shizhong District, Shandong Province, Jinan, CHN, 250001
Zhongtai Futures Co Ltd is engaged in four segments; Brokerage business, Risk management business, Asset management business, and Other businesses. The business scopes of the Group cover commodity futures brokerage, financial futures brokerage, futures transaction consulting, asset management, bulk commodity futures and spot trading services, cooperative hedging, market-maker business, OTC derivatives business, information technology consulting services, and other business activities. The Group mainly operates in Shandong Province, the PRC.
Executives
Xu Guiqin 2101 Beneficial owner
China Minsheng Investment Group Corp., Ltd. 2101 Beneficial owner
Cm International Capital Limited 2101 Beneficial owner

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