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Kingkey Financial International (Holdings) (HKSE:01468) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 68.54% (As of Jun. 02, 2024)


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What is Kingkey Financial International (Holdings) Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Kingkey Financial International (Holdings)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 68.54%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of Kingkey Financial International (Holdings)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Conglomerates subindustry, Kingkey Financial International (Holdings)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Kingkey Financial International (Holdings)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Conglomerates Industry

For the Conglomerates industry and Industrials sector, Kingkey Financial International (Holdings)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Kingkey Financial International (Holdings)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


Kingkey Financial International (Holdings) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=0.78

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=68.54%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Kingkey Financial International (Holdings)  (HKSE:01468) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Kingkey Financial International (Holdings) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Kingkey Financial International (Holdings) (HKSE:01468) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Conglomerates » Kingkey Financial International (Holdings) Ltd (HKSE:01468) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)
Comparable Companies
HKSE:02322 HKSE:00363 HKSE:00025 HKSE:00882 HKSE:00474 HKSE:02327 HKSE:00202 HKSE:01222 HKSE:00800 HKSE:00138 ADX:IHC HON TSE:8058 TSE:6501 TSE:8031 TSE:8001 MMM ADX:ALPHADHABI HKSE:00267 TSE:8002
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
8 Hok Cheung Street, Hunghom, 902, Harbour Centre, Tower 2, Kowloon, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
https://www.kkgroup.com.hk
Kingkey Financial International (Holdings) Ltd is engaged in the trade of fur skins, fur skins brokerage, mink farming, provision of securities brokerage services, and provision of wealth management services. The operating segments are Securities which involves the operation of securities brokerage, margin financing, underwriting, placing and consultancy services; Insurance brokerage which includes the provision of insurance brokerage and wealth management services; Fur comprising the provision of breeding, farming and sale of livestock and pelted skin, fur skin brokerage and financing services, Asset Management engaged in provision and arrangement of fund management services and assets management services, and Money lending engaged in provision and arrangement of money lending services.
Executives
Kingkey Holdings (international) Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Chen Jiajun 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Great Return Group Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
East Treasure Enterprises Corporation 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Fong Chu Pong 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Eternity Star Development Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Renhe Holdings Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Chen Jiajun 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Chang Tat Joel 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lee Cho Man Joe 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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