China Everbright Water (HKSE:01857) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.03% (As of Jun. 24, 2024)

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What is China Everbright Water Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, China Everbright Water's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of China Everbright Water's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Utilities - Regulated Water subindustry, China Everbright Water's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

China Everbright Water's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Utilities - Regulated Industry

For the Utilities - Regulated industry and Utilities sector, China Everbright Water's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where China Everbright Water's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

China Everbright Water Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-8.09

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.03%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

China Everbright Water (HKSE:01857) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

China Everbright Water Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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China Everbright Water (HKSE:01857) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » China Everbright Water Ltd (HKSE:01857) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BOTRF:USA U9E:Singapore BIU2:Germany

Address

Number 1003 Shennan Avenue, 26th Floor, Block A, Oriental Xintiandi Plaza, Futian District, Shenzhen, CHN, 518000

Website

https://www.ebwater.com

China Everbright Water Ltd provides water supply, waste water treatment, sludge treatment, and other environmental services. It designs, constructs, and operates water treatment plants, and extracts energy from water discharged by the plants to power air-conditioning for various buildings. Concession arrangements from various Chinese government authorities span multiple years, and allow the company to operate plants and charge users a fee for consumption. Under the arrangements, China Everbright is obligated to maintain the plants, and receives annual payments from the grantors. Raw materials and consumables are utilized by experienced technicians to repair and maintain facilities. Majority of sales and assets are generated and located in China.

Executives

China Everbright Holdings Company Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
China Everbright Environment Group Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Central Huijin Investment Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
China Everbright Environmental Protection Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
China Everbright International Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
China Everbright Water Holdings Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Datten Investments Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Guildford Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhong Guo Guang Da Ji Tuan Gu Fen Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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