Tian Chang Group Holdings (HKSE:02182) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.07% (As of Aug. 09, 2026)

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HKSE:02182 Tian Chang Group Holdings Ltd HKSE:02182
50 GF Score
Price HK$0.32
GF Value HK$0.27
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 3 Warning Signs
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What is Tian Chang Group Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Tian Chang Group Holdings HKSE:02182 50 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07% as of Aug. 09, 2026. GuruFocus rates HKSE:02182 with a GF Score™ of 50/100 and a GF Value™ of HK$0.27 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Tian Chang Group Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Tian Chang Group Holdings  (HKSE:02182) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Tian Chang Group Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

HKSE:02182 vs MMM, HON: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Conglomerates subindustry, Tian Chang Group Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Tian Chang Group Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Conglomerates Industry

For the Conglomerates industry and Industrials sector, Tian Chang Group Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Tian Chang Group Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


HKSE:02182
50GF Score
Tian Chang Group Holdings Ltd HKSE:02182
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Tian Chang Group Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.24

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.07%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.07% mean?
Tian Chang Group Holdings (HKSE:02182) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.07% as of Aug. 09, 2026.
Is Tian Chang Group Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Tian Chang Group Holdings' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07%. Overall, Tian Chang Group Holdings has a GF Score™ of 50/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Tian Chang Group Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to MMM and HON?
Tian Chang Group Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.07% can be compared against companies in the Conglomerates industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Conglomerates company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Conglomerates industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Tian Chang Group Holdings's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Tian Chang Group Holdings stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Tian Chang Group Holdings (HKSE:02182) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is HK$0.27, compared to a current price of HK$0.32 — trading 16.7% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07%. Tian Chang Group Holdings' overall GF Score™ is 50/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Tian Chang Group Holdings (HKSE:02182), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07% as of Aug. 09, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Tian Chang Group Holdings (HKSE:02182) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Tian Chang Group Holdings stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of HK$0.32 is trading 16.7% above its estimated GF Value™ of HK$0.27. GuruFocus considers Tian Chang Group Holdings to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for HKSE:02182:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.07%
  • GF Value™: HK$0.27 vs. price of HK$0.32 (16.7% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 50/100 with 3 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the HKSE:02182 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Tian Chang Group Holdings Business Description

Address 55 Hoi Yuen Road, Workshop Unit 6, 13th Floor, Block B, Hoi Luen Industrial Centre, Kwun Tong, Hong Kong, HKG
Tian Chang Group Holdings Ltd is principally engaged in the manufacturing and sales of electronic cigarette products and providing integrated plastic solutions in Hong Kong and the PRC. It operates in the segments of the Integrated plastic solutions segment, the Electronic cigarette products segment, and the Medical consumable products segment. The E-cigarette products segment involves the manufacture and sales of e-cigarette products, whereas the Integrated plastic solutions segment consists of the manufacture and sales of moulds and plastic products. The company derives key revenue from the PRC.
50GF Score

Get the complete analysis for HKSE:02182

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

HK$0.32
Price
HK$0.27
GF Value