Intercept Pharmaceuticals (NAS:ICPT) Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 1.41% (As of Today)

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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Intercept Pharmaceuticals's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.41%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison

For the Biotechnology subindustry, Intercept Pharmaceuticals's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Annual Data Quarterly Data

Intercept Pharmaceuticals Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Biotechnology industry and Healthcare sector, Intercept Pharmaceuticals's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Intercept Pharmaceuticals's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls in comparison to its industry or sector. The grey bar indicates the Probability of Financial Distress (%)'s extreme value range as defined by GuruFocus.

Intercept Pharmaceuticals Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-4.24

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	1.41%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Intercept Pharmaceuticals (NAS:ICPT) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Intercept Pharmaceuticals Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Intercept Pharmaceuticals (NAS:ICPT) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Intercept Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:ICPT) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

I4P:Germany

Address

10 Hudson Yards, 37th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10001

Website

https://www.interceptpharma.com

Intercept Pharmaceuticals is a biotech company focused on developing and commercializing novel therapeutics to treat chronic liver diseases. Obeticholic acid, or OCA, is an agonist of the farnesoid X receptor. OCA was approved as Ocaliva to treat primary biliary cirrhosis in 2016 and is being developed for a variety of chronic liver diseases, including nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, or NASH.

Executives

Andrew Saik	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	640 LEE ROAD, CHESTERBROOK PA 19087
M Michelle Berrey	officer: President, R&D and CMO	303A COLLEGE ROAD EAST, PRINCETON NJ 08450
Dagmar Rosa-bjorkeson	director	C/O BAXALTA INCORPORATED, 1200 LAKESIDE DRIVE, BANNOCKBURN IL 60015
Rocco Venezia	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O INTERCEPT PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 10 HUDSON YARDS, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Lisa Defrancesco	officer: SVP, IR & Corp. Affairs	C/O INTERCEPT PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 10 HUDSON YARDS, FLOOR 37, NEW YORK NY 10001
Linda M Richardson	officer: EVP & Chief Commercial Officer	2505 MERIDIAN PKWY, SUITE 340, C/O CHIMERIX, INC., DURHAM NC 27713
Jared Freedberg	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	300 THE AMERICAN ROAD, MORRIS PLAINS NJ 07950
Bryan Ball	officer: Chief Quality Officer	300 THE AMERICAN ROAD, MORRIS PLAINS NJ 07950
Paolo Fundaro	director, 10 percent owner	C/O GENEXTRA S.P.A.,, VIA G. DE GRASSI, 11, MILAN L6 20123
Keith Michael Gottesdiener	director	900 FIFTH AVENUE, #8C, NEW YORK NY 10021
Luca Benatti	director	C/O INTERCEPT PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 450 WEST 15TH STREET, SUITE 505, NEW YORK NY 10011
Daniel G Welch	director	4611 UNIVERSITY DR, 4 UNIVERSITY PLACE, DURHAM NC 27707
Daniel Bradbury	director	BIOBRIT, LLC, 2223 AVENIDA DE LA PLAYA, SUITE 108, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Nancy Miller-rich	director	C/O INTERCEPT PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 10 HUDSON YARDS, 37TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10001
Gino Santini	director	C/O AMAG PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 1100 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451