What is Inland Real Estate Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Inland Real Estate's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 50.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Inland Real Estate's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the REIT - Retail subindustry, Inland Real Estate's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Inland Real Estate's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the REITs Industry
For the REITs industry and Real Estate sector, Inland Real Estate's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Inland Real Estate's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Inland Real Estate Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 50.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Inland Real Estate (Inland Real Estate) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
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Inland Real Estate Corp was formed on May 12, 1994. It is a publicly held real estate investment trust ("REIT") that owns, operates and develops open-air neighborhood, community and power shopping centers and single-tenant retail properties located in Midwest markets. Approximately fifty-nine percent of its total retail portfolio gross leasable area is located in the Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area, with its second largest market concentration being approximately seventeen percent in the Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA. Tenants at the Company's retail properties primarily provide "everyday" goods and services to consumers. The primary drivers of its internal income growth are rental rate increases over expiring rates on new and renewal leases and cost savings from operational efficiencies. The Company's business is competitive. It competes with other property owners on the basis of location, rental rates, operating expenses, visibility, quality of the property, volume of traffic, strength and name recognition of other tenants at each location and other factors. These competitive factors affect the level of occupancy and rental rates that it is able to achieve at its investment properties. In addition, the Company's tenants compete against other forms of retailing such as catalog companies and e-commerce websites that offer similar retail products. The Company competes with other real estate companies, and at its current investment properties, it competes with other owners of similar properties for tenants. Inland Real Estate's properties are also subject to various federal, state and local regulatory requirements, such as state and local fire and life safety requirements.
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