Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ISX:ALDO) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
ISX:ALDO vs SLVM: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Paper & Paper Products subindustry, PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Forest Products Industry
For the Forest Products industry and Basic Materials sector, PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-7.99
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% mean?
PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ISX:ALDO) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% as of Jun. 26, 2026.
Is PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. Overall, PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk has a GF Score™ of 71/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to SLVM?
PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% can be compared against companies in the Forest Products industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Forest Products company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Forest Products industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ISX:ALDO) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is Rp589.08, compared to a current price of Rp700.00 — trading 18.8% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk's overall GF Score™ is 71/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ISX:ALDO), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03% as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ISX:ALDO) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of Rp700.00 is trading 18.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of Rp589.08.
GuruFocus considers PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for ISX:ALDO:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.03%
GF Value™: Rp589.08 vs. price of Rp700.00 (18.8% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the ISX:ALDO stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk is an Indonesian business group engaged in providing solutions in the field of integrated paper production and chemicals. It converts waste paper into various paper packaging products such as papercore, paperbox, paperbag, papercup, paperbowl, hexa wrap, etc. Additionally, it offers industrial paper solutions by recycling used cardboard into jumbo rolls of brown paper into products such as Kraft Liner, Eco Board, and Core Board. In the Chemicals business, the Group offers water-based polymers, textile dyes, and other chemicals under brands and trademarks like Alfachem, Alfabond, Alfacoat, and Archroma. The Group's operating business segments are: Paper, which generates the maximum revenue, and Chemicals and others.
71GF Score
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