Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, KAL Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
KAL Group (JSE:KAL) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
KAL Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
JSE:KAL vs CASY, WSM, ULTA: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Specialty Retail subindustry, KAL Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
KAL Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Retail - Cyclical Industry
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, KAL Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where KAL Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
KAL Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-8.82
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01% mean?
KAL Group (JSE:KAL) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01% as of Aug. 22, 2026.
Is KAL Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
KAL Group's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%. Overall, KAL Group has a GF Score™ of 92/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does KAL Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to CASY and WSM?
KAL Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01% can be compared against companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Retail - Cyclical company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Retail - Cyclical industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. KAL Group's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is KAL Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, KAL Group (JSE:KAL) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is R43.66, compared to a current price of R50.00 — trading 14.5% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%. KAL Group's overall GF Score™ is 92/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For KAL Group (JSE:KAL), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01% as of Aug. 22, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is KAL Group (JSE:KAL) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, KAL Group stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of R50.00 is trading 14.5% above its estimated GF Value™ of R43.66.
GuruFocus considers KAL Group to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for JSE:KAL:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.01%
GF Value™: R43.66 vs. price of R50.00 (14.5% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the JSE:KAL stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
KAL Group Ltd is a lifestyle retailer offering agricultural inputs, fuel (farm and retail), and general and convenience retail products to consumers across Southern Africa. Its segments include Agrimark, PEG, Agrimark Grain and Manufacturing. The majority of the company's revenue is derived from the PEG segment, which operates retail fuel outlets, including convenience stores and quick-service restaurant locations, serving a broad customer base. Geographically, it generates the maximum revenue from South Africa and the rest from Namibia.
92GF Score
Get the complete analysis for JSE:KAL
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
JSE:KAL has been successfully added to your 
