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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, National Industries Co KSC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
National Industries Co KSC (KUW:NICBM) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
National Industries Co KSC Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
KUW:NICBM vs TT, JCI, CARR: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Building Products & Equipment subindustry, National Industries Co KSC's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
National Industries Co KSC Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Construction Industry
For the Construction industry and Industrials sector, National Industries Co KSC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where National Industries Co KSC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
National Industries Co KSC Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-8.33
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% mean?
National Industries Co KSC (KUW:NICBM) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% as of Sep. 04, 2026.
Is National Industries Co KSC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
National Industries Co KSC's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Overall, National Industries Co KSC has a GF Score™ of 47/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does National Industries Co KSC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to TT and JCI?
National Industries Co KSC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% can be compared against companies in the Construction industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Construction company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Construction industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. National Industries Co KSC's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is National Industries Co KSC stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, National Industries Co KSC (KUW:NICBM) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is KWD0.23, compared to a current price of KWD0.27 — trading 16.1% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. National Industries Co KSC's overall GF Score™ is 47/100 with 8 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For National Industries Co KSC (KUW:NICBM), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02% as of Sep. 04, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is National Industries Co KSC (KUW:NICBM) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, National Industries Co KSC stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of KWD0.27 is trading 16.1% above its estimated GF Value™ of KWD0.23.
GuruFocus considers National Industries Co KSC to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for KUW:NICBM:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.02%
GF Value™: KWD0.23 vs. price of KWD0.27 (16.1% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the KUW:NICBM stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
National Industries Co KSC is a company specializing in the manufacture and marketing of building materials and infrastructure products in the State of Kuwait. The business has four business segments which include building materials and contracting services, the Oil sector, Real estate, and investments. The majority of its revenue derives from the building materials and contracting services segment.
47GF Score
Get the complete analysis for KUW:NICBM
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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