What is Virgin Media Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Virgin Media's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Virgin Media's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Broadcasting subindustry, Virgin Media's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Virgin Media's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Media - Diversified Industry
For the Media - Diversified industry and Communication Services sector, Virgin Media's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Virgin Media's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Virgin Media Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Virgin Media (LSE:VMED) Business Description
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Virgin Media Inc is engaged in the entertainment and communications business, being a quad-play provider of broadband internet, television, mobile telephony and fixed line telephony services that offer a variety of entertainment and communications services to residential and commercial customers throughout the U.K. The group is a provider of residential broadband internet, pay television and fixed line telephony services by number of customers. In addition, it provides a complete portfolio of voice, data and internet solutions to businesses, public sector organizations and service providers in the U.K. through Virgin Media Business. Its two reporting segments are Consumer and Business. Consumer segment includes the distribution of television programming over the cable network and the provision of broadband and fixed line telephone services to residential consumers, both on and off the cable network. The Consumer segment faces competition from BT, British Sky Broadcasting Group PLC, or BSkyB, TalkTalk Telecom Group PLC, or TalkTalk, Vodafone, EE and O2. Business segment includes the voice and data telecommunication and internet solutions services that provide through its cable network and third party networks to businesses, public sector organizations and service providers. The Business segment is managed through Virgin Media Business offers a broad portfolio of voice, data and internet solutions to commercial and public sector organizations in the U.K., ranging from analog telephony to managed data networks and applications. Virgin Media Business competes primarily with traditional network operators such as BT and C&W. It also competes with regional providers, such as COLTTelecom Group PLC.
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