Spotify Technology (LTS:0SPT) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.04% (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


LTS:0SPT Spotify Technology SA LTS:0SPT
70 GF Score
Price €402.00
GF Value €432.70
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 2 Warning Signs
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What is Spotify Technology Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Spotify Technology LTS:0SPT -1.11% 70 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates LTS:0SPT with a GF Score™ of 70/100 and a GF Value™ of €432.70 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 2 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Spotify Technology's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Spotify Technology  (LTS:0SPT) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Spotify Technology Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


LTS:0SPT vs NBIS, BIDU, RDDT: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Internet Content & Information subindustry, Spotify Technology's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Spotify Technology Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Interactive Media Industry

For the Interactive Media industry and Communication Services sector, Spotify Technology's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Spotify Technology's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


LTS:0SPT
70GF Score
Spotify Technology SA LTS:0SPT
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Spotify Technology Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.85

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.04%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% mean?
Spotify Technology (LTS:0SPT) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% as of Jun. 25, 2026.
Is Spotify Technology's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Spotify Technology's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. Overall, Spotify Technology has a GF Score™ of 70/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Spotify Technology's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to NBIS and BIDU?
Spotify Technology's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% can be compared against companies in the Interactive Media industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Interactive Media company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Interactive Media industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Spotify Technology's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Spotify Technology stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Spotify Technology (LTS:0SPT) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is €432.70, compared to a current price of €402.00 — trading 7.1% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. Spotify Technology's overall GF Score™ is 70/100 with 2 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Spotify Technology (LTS:0SPT), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Spotify Technology (LTS:0SPT) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Spotify Technology stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of €402.00 is trading 7.1% below its estimated GF Value™ of €432.70. GuruFocus considers Spotify Technology to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for LTS:0SPT:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.04%
  • GF Value™: €432.70 vs. price of €402.00 (7.1% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 70/100 with 2 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the LTS:0SPT stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Spotify Technology Business Description

Address Regeringsgatan 19, Stockholm, SWE, 111 53
Spotify is the leading global music streaming service, with over 750 million monthly active users and nearly 300 million paying subscribers, with the latter constituting the firm's premium segment. Most of the firm's revenue and nearly all its gross profit come from subscribers, who pay a monthly fee to access a music library that includes most of the most popular songs ever recorded, including all from the major record labels. The firm also offers access to audiobooks and integrates podcasts within its standard music app. Podcast content is not exclusive and is typically free to access on other platforms. Ad-supported users can access a similar music catalog, but cannot customize a similar on-demand experience.
70GF Score

Get the complete analysis for LTS:0SPT

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

€402.00
Price
€432.70
GF Value