Essential Utilities (MEX:WTRG) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.04% (As of Jun. 27, 2026)


What is Essential Utilities Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Essential Utilities MEX:WTRG 73 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04% as of Jun. 27, 2026. GuruFocus rates MEX:WTRG with a GF Score™ of 73/100. The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Essential Utilities's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Essential Utilities  (MEX:WTRG) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Essential Utilities Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

MEX:WTRG vs AWR, CWT, HTO: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Utilities - Regulated Water subindustry, Essential Utilities's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Essential Utilities Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Utilities - Regulated Industry

For the Utilities - Regulated industry and Utilities sector, Essential Utilities's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Essential Utilities's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


Essential Utilities Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.84

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.04%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% mean?
Essential Utilities (MEX:WTRG) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% as of Jun. 27, 2026.
Is Essential Utilities' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Essential Utilities' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. Overall, Essential Utilities has a GF Score™ of 73/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Essential Utilities' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to AWR and CWT?
Essential Utilities' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% can be compared against companies in the Utilities - Regulated industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Utilities - Regulated company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Utilities - Regulated industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Essential Utilities's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Essential Utilities stock overvalued right now?
Essential Utilities (MEX:WTRG) has a current Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04%. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. Essential Utilities' overall GF Score™ is 73/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Essential Utilities (MEX:WTRG), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04% as of Jun. 27, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Essential Utilities Business Description

Other Exchanges WTRG:USAA2A:Germany
Address 762 West Lancaster Avenue, Bryn Mawr, PA, USA, 19010-3489
Essential Utilities is a Pennsylvania-based holding company for US water, wastewater, and natural gas distribution utilities. The company's water business serves 3 million people in eight states. Its largest service territory is in Pennsylvania, primarily suburban Philadelphia. Its Peoples subsidiary serves more than 740,000 gas distribution customers in Pennsylvania and Kentucky. It completed the sale of its West Virginia gas utility and the bulk of its nonregulated assets in 2024. Essential shareholders would own a 31% stake in American Water Works if the proposed all-stock merger closes in 2027.