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Aquafil SpA (MIL:ECNL) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.34% (As of Dec. 14, 2024)


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What is Aquafil SpA Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Aquafil SpA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.34%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Aquafil SpA's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Textile Manufacturing subindustry, Aquafil SpA's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Aquafil SpA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories Industry

For the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Aquafil SpA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Aquafil SpA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Aquafil SpA Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-5.69

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.34%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Aquafil SpA  (MIL:ECNL) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Aquafil SpA Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Aquafil SpA Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
Via Linfano, 9, Arco, Trento, ITA, 38062
Aquafil SpA is engaged in the business of manufacturing polyamides. It produces and sells fibers and polymers, principally polyamide 6, scale through the: BCF Product Line (carpet fibers), or synthetic yarns mainly intended for the textile flooring sector and used in contract segments (hotels, airports, offices, etc.), residential buildings and the automotive market; NTF Product Line (clothing fibers), or synthetic yarns mainly intended for the clothing sector (sportswear, classic, technical or specialist apparel); Polymers Product Line, or plastic raw materials, mainly targeting the engineering plastics sector for subsequent use in the molding industry. Its products are also sold on the market under the ECONYL brand.

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