Vinext SpA (MIL:VNXT) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 50.00% (As of Jul. 02, 2026)


MIL:VNXT Vinext SpA MIL:VNXT
13 GF Score
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What is Vinext SpA Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Vinext SpA MIL:VNXT 13 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 50.00% as of Jul. 02, 2026. GuruFocus rates MIL:VNXT with a GF Score™ of 13/100. The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Vinext SpA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 50.00%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Vinext SpA  (MIL:VNXT) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Vinext SpA Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


MIL:VNXT vs LIN, SHW, ECL: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Specialty Chemicals subindustry, Vinext SpA's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Vinext SpA Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Chemicals Industry

For the Chemicals industry and Basic Materials sector, Vinext SpA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Vinext SpA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


MIL:VNXT
13GF Score
Vinext SpA MIL:VNXT
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Vinext SpA Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=0.00

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=50.00%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 50.00% mean?
Vinext SpA (MIL:VNXT) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 50.00% as of Jul. 02, 2026.
Is Vinext SpA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Vinext SpA's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 50.00%. Overall, Vinext SpA has a GF Score™ of 13/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Vinext SpA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to LIN and SHW?
Vinext SpA's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 50.00% can be compared against companies in the Chemicals industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Chemicals company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Chemicals industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Vinext SpA's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 50.00%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Vinext SpA stock overvalued right now?
Vinext SpA (MIL:VNXT) has a current Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 50.00%. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 50.00%. Vinext SpA's overall GF Score™ is 13/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Vinext SpA (MIL:VNXT), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 50.00% as of Jul. 02, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Vinext SpA Business Description

Address Viale del Lavoro, 44, San Martino Buon Albergo, Verona, ITA, 37036
Vinext SpA is engaged in research, to provide solutions to the winemaking production chain , in terms of environmental impact, energy resources, water savings and management, and reduction of polluting emissions. It offers the agri-food sector solutions and customized consulting services for the recovery/reuse of process and washing water, the treatment of wastewater before discharge into the mains or surface water bodies, the sequestration and recovery of CO2 produced during processing, and the creation of soil improvers, fertilizers, and high-value natural compounds from production waste. The company's business units involve: Wine Products; Cleaning Sanitization, Ozone Engineering and Technology; and Agro.
13GF Score

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Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

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