KenGen Co (NAI:KEGN) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.02% (As of Aug. 17, 2026)

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NAI:KEGN KenGen Co PLC NAI:KEGN
76 GF Score
Price KES11.30
GF Value KES3.02
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 9 Warning Signs
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What is KenGen Co Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

KenGen Co NAI:KEGN +0.44% 76 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02% as of Aug. 17, 2026. GuruFocus rates NAI:KEGN with a GF Score™ of 76/100 and a GF Value™ of KES3.02 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 9 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, KenGen Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


KenGen Co  (NAI:KEGN) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


KenGen Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


NAI:KEGN vs NEE, SO, DUK: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Utilities - Regulated Electric subindustry, KenGen Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


KenGen Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Utilities - Regulated Industry

For the Utilities - Regulated industry and Utilities sector, KenGen Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where KenGen Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


NAI:KEGN
76GF Score
KenGen Co PLC NAI:KEGN
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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KenGen Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.65

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.02%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% mean?
KenGen Co (NAI:KEGN) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% as of Aug. 17, 2026.
Is KenGen Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
KenGen Co's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Overall, KenGen Co has a GF Score™ of 76/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does KenGen Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to NEE and SO?
KenGen Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% can be compared against companies in the Utilities - Regulated industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Utilities - Regulated company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Utilities - Regulated industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. KenGen Co's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is KenGen Co stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, KenGen Co (NAI:KEGN) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is KES3.02, compared to a current price of KES11.30 — trading 274.2% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. KenGen Co's overall GF Score™ is 76/100 with 9 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For KenGen Co (NAI:KEGN), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02% as of Aug. 17, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is KenGen Co (NAI:KEGN) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, KenGen Co stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of KES11.30 is trading 274.2% above its estimated GF Value™ of KES3.02. GuruFocus considers KenGen Co to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for NAI:KEGN:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.02%
  • GF Value™: KES3.02 vs. price of KES11.30 (274.2% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 76/100 with 9 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the NAI:KEGN stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


KenGen Co Business Description

Address Kolobot Road, Kengen Pension Plaza 2, P.O. Box 47936, Nairobi, KEN, 00100
KenGen Co PLC is East Africa's electric power producer, mandated to develop, manage, and operate power plants to generate electricity, including geothermal energy and thermal energy. The Company's primary reportable segment is electricity generation, which is its sole product and revenue stream. In line with its revenue diversification strategy, it has undertaken drilling and consultancy services in Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Eswatini, with drilling operations in Ethiopia and Djibouti now concluded. All its plants are based in Kenya and operate within one geographical location.
76GF Score

Get the complete analysis for NAI:KEGN

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

KES11.30
Price
KES3.02
GF Value