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Activision Blizzard Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.01% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Activision Blizzard's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Electronic Gaming & Multimedia subindustry, Activision Blizzard's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Activision Blizzard Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Interactive Media industry and Communication Services sector, Activision Blizzard's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Activision Blizzard's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Activision Blizzard Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-9.68

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.01%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Activision Blizzard  (NAS:ATVI) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Activision Blizzard Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Activision Blizzard's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Activision Blizzard Business Description

Activision Blizzard logo
Address
2701 Olympic Boulevard, Building B, Santa Monica, CA, USA, 90404
Activision Blizzard was formed in 2008 by the merger of Activision, one of the largest console video game publishers, and Blizzard, one of largest PC video game publishers. The combined firm remains one of the world's largest video game publishers. Activision's impressive franchise portfolio includes World of Warcraft, which boasts more than $8 billion of lifetime sales, and Call of Duty, which has sold over 175 million copies across 14 titles over 12 years.
Executives
Meservey Lulu Cheng director 2701 OLYMPIC BOULEVARD BUILDING B SANTA MONICA CA 90404
Bulatao Brian officer: Chief Administrative Officer C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC. 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Dixton Grant Michael officer: Chief Legal Officer C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC. 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Zerza Armin officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Macartney Claudine officer: Chief People Officer AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP, INC. 175 WATER ST. NEW YORK NY 10038
Ostroff Dawn director 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 91405
Yang Jesse officer: Chief Accounting Officer C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC. 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Alegre Daniel officer: President and COO 9800 59TH AVENUE NORTH MINNEAPOLIS MN 55317
Wereb Stephen G officer: Principal Accounting Officer C/O ACTIVISION, INC. 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Walther Christopher B officer: Chief Legal Officer C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Bowers Reveta F director C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC. 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Johnson Collister officer: President and COO C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC. 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Neumann Spencer Adam officer: Chief Financial Officer SIERRA INCOME CORPORATION 375 PARK AVE., SUITE 3304 NEW YORK NY 10152
Asac Ii Lp 10 percent owner C/O CHADWICK & COMPANY 225 HIGHWAY 35, SUITE 102C RED BANK NJ 07701
Asac Ii Llc 10 percent owner C/O CHADWICK & COMPANY 225 HIGHWAY 35, SUITE 102C RED BANK NJ 07701

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