LightAir AB (NGM:LAIR) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 2.66% (As of Jul. 15, 2026)

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

NGM:LAIR LightAir AB NGM:LAIR
34 GF Score
Price kr0.69
GF Value kr0.28
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 3 Warning Signs
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What is LightAir AB Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

LightAir AB NGM:LAIR 34 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 2.66% as of Jul. 15, 2026. GuruFocus rates NGM:LAIR with a GF Score™ of 34/100 and a GF Value™ of kr0.28 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, LightAir AB's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 2.66%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


LightAir AB  (NGM:LAIR) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


LightAir AB Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


NGM:LAIR vs VLTO, ZWS, CECO: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Pollution & Treatment Controls subindustry, LightAir AB's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


LightAir AB Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Industrial Products Industry

For the Industrial Products industry and Industrials sector, LightAir AB's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where LightAir AB's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


NGM:LAIR
34GF Score
LightAir AB NGM:LAIR
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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LightAir AB Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-3.60

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=2.66%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 2.66% mean?
LightAir AB (NGM:LAIR) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 2.66% as of Jul. 15, 2026.
Is LightAir AB's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
LightAir AB's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 2.66%. Overall, LightAir AB has a GF Score™ of 34/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does LightAir AB's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to VLTO and ZWS?
LightAir AB's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 2.66% can be compared against companies in the Industrial Products industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Industrial Products company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Industrial Products industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. LightAir AB's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 2.66%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is LightAir AB stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, LightAir AB (NGM:LAIR) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is kr0.28, compared to a current price of kr0.69 — trading 146.4% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 2.66%. LightAir AB's overall GF Score™ is 34/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For LightAir AB (NGM:LAIR), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 2.66% as of Jul. 15, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is LightAir AB (NGM:LAIR) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, LightAir AB stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of kr0.69 is trading 146.4% above its estimated GF Value™ of kr0.28. GuruFocus considers LightAir AB to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for NGM:LAIR:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 2.66%
  • GF Value™: kr0.28 vs. price of kr0.69 (146.4% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 34/100 with 3 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the NGM:LAIR stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


LightAir AB Business Description

Address Svetsarvagen 13, kersberga, Stockholm, SWE, 184 42
LightAir AB is engaged in manufacturing and selling of air purifiers used for different industrial purposes such as traffic pollution, pet allergen, industrial pollution, smoke, and others. Its Air purifiers products include IonFlow Signature, IonFlow Evolution, IonFlow Style, IonFlow Surface, and others. The company distributes its products in Europe, Asia, and North America.
34GF Score

Get the complete analysis for NGM:LAIR

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

kr0.69
Price
kr0.28
GF Value