Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Rain Industries's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Rain Industries (NSE:RAIN) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Rain Industries Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
NSE:RAIN vs LIN, SHW, ECL: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Specialty Chemicals subindustry, Rain Industries's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Rain Industries Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Chemicals Industry
For the Chemicals industry and Basic Materials sector, Rain Industries's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Rain Industries's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Rain Industries Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-7.50
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06% mean?
Rain Industries (NSE:RAIN) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06% as of Jun. 28, 2026.
Is Rain Industries' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Rain Industries' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%. Overall, Rain Industries has a GF Score™ of 65/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Rain Industries' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to LIN and SHW?
Rain Industries' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06% can be compared against companies in the Chemicals industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Chemicals company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Chemicals industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Rain Industries's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Rain Industries stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Rain Industries (NSE:RAIN) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is ₹154.59, compared to a current price of ₹185.49 — trading 20% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%. Rain Industries' overall GF Score™ is 65/100 with 12 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Rain Industries (NSE:RAIN), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06% as of Jun. 28, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Rain Industries (NSE:RAIN) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Rain Industries stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of ₹185.49 is trading 20% above its estimated GF Value™ of ₹154.59.
GuruFocus considers Rain Industries to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for NSE:RAIN:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.06%
GF Value™: ₹154.59 vs. price of ₹185.49 (20% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the NSE:RAIN stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Rain Industries Ltd engages in the production of cement and other related products. The group operates through three segments namely Carbon Products, Advance Materials, and Cement. The product portfolio of the group consists of Calcined Petroleum Coke, Green Petroleum Coke, Coal Tar Pitch, Co-generated Energy, and other derivatives of coal tar distillation. In addition, it also focuses on the downstream operations of coal tar distillation and modifiers and is also involved in the manufacture and sale of cement. Geographically, the business of the firm is spread across the region of Europe, the United States, North America, Asia, and others.
65GF Score
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