What is NAPCO Security Technologies Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, NAPCO Security Technologies's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of NAPCO Security Technologies's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Security & Protection Services subindustry, NAPCO Security Technologies's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
NAPCO Security Technologies's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Business Services Industry
For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, NAPCO Security Technologies's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where NAPCO Security Technologies's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
NAPCO Security Technologies Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | -8.12 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.03% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
NAPCO Security Technologies Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
333 Bayview Avenue, Amityville, NY, USA, 11701
NAPCO Security Technologies Inc manufactures security products, encompassing access control systems, door-locking products, intrusion and fire alarm systems and video surveillance products. Its products are used for various applications which includes alarm systems like automatic communicators, combination control panels/digital communicators and digital keypad systems, fire alarm control panel and area detectors mainly used for commercial, residential, institutional, industrial and governmental uses. Geographically, the company derives a majority of its revenue from the United States.
Executives
| Paul Stephen Beeber |
director |
333 BAYVIEW AVENUE, AMITYVILLE NY 11701 |
| Stephen M Spinelli |
officer: Senior VP of Sales |
333 BAYVIEW AVENUE, AMITYVILLE NY 11701 |
| Richard Soloway |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and Secretary |
333 BAYVIEW AVENUE, AMITYVILLE NY 11701 |
| Kevin S Buchel |
director, officer: Senior Vice President |
333 BAYVIEW AVE, AMITYVILLE NY 11701 |
| Michael Carrieri |
officer: Sr.Vice President, Engineering |
|
| David Alexander Paterson |
director |
333 BAYVIEW AVENUE, AMITYVILLE NY 11701 |
| Rick A Lazio |
director |
|
| Jorge Hevia |
officer: Senior Vice President |
|
| Robert A Ungar |
director |
333 BAYVIEW AVENUE, AMITYVILLE NY 11701 |
| Andrew Wilder |
director |
333 BAYVIEW AVE, AMITYVILLE NY 11701 |
| Randy B Blauskin |
director |
333 BAYVIEW AVENUE, AMITYVILLE NY 11757 |
| George Marks |
officer: Pres. of Marks USA-Sub of NSSC |
322 BALTRUSTROL CIRCLE, NORTH HILLS NY 11576 |
| Donna Anne Soloway |
director |
333 BAYVIEW AVENUE, AMITYVILLE, NY 11701 |
| Cannell Capital Llc |
10 percent owner |
245 MERIWETHER CIRCLE, ALTA WY 83414 |
| William G Lorber |
officer: Vice President |
355 BAYVIEW AVENUE, AMITYVILLE NY 11701 |
NAPCO Security Technologies Headlines
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