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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Novo Integrated Sciences's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 12.16%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
For the Medical Care Facilities subindustry, Novo Integrated Sciences's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Healthcare Providers & Services industry and Healthcare sector, Novo Integrated Sciences's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Novo Integrated Sciences's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
= | -1.98 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
= | 12.16% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
NIMTAAVG | = | Net Income | / | Market Total Assets |
= | Net Income | / | (Market Cap + Total Liabilities) |
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
TLMTA | = | Total Liabilities | / | Market Total Assets |
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
CASHMTA | = | Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities | / | Market Total Assets |
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
MB | = | Market Cap | / | Adjusted Book Equity |
= | Market Cap | / | (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity)) |
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Novo Integrated Sciences (NAS:NVOS) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Novo Integrated Sciences's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Sarfaraz Ali | director | C/O NOVO INTEGRATED SCIENCES, INC.,, 11120 NE 2ND STREET, SUITE 100, BELLEVUE WA 98004 |
Robert Letterio Oliva | director | 115 BELFIELD RD, TORONTO A6 L0J 1C0 |
Sterling M. Jimenez | officer: Principal Financial Officer | C/O NOVO INTEGRATED SCIENCES, INC.,, 11120 NE 2ND STREET, SUITE 100, BELLEVUE WA 98004 |
Michael Ross Pope | director | 1045 PROGRESS CIRCLE, LAWRENCEVILLE, GEORGIA GA 30043 |
Alex Flesias | director | 41 LANDMARK COURT, UNIONVILLE A6 L3R 9N7 |
Michael Joseph Gaynor | director | 49 BALMORAL ST, KEMPTVILLE A6 K0G 1J0 |
Robert Mattacchione | director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer | 79 SELVAPIANO CRES, WOODBRIDGE A6 L4H 0X1 |
Pierre Joseph Dalcourt | director, 10 percent owner | 35 BRYANT ST , BOX 2230, HEARST A6 P0L 1N0 |
Christopher Mehlin David | director, officer: President | 10425 SE 22ND ST., BELLEVUE WA 98004 |
Thomas Edward Bray | officer: Principal Financial Officer | C/O NOVO INTEGRATED SCIENCES, INC., 11120 NE 2ND STREET, SUITE 100, BELLEVUE WA 98004 |
Rebecca Aw Mcdonald | officer: Chief Accounting Officer | 1301 INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY BLVD., DELAND FL 32724 |
James Jr Teters | director | 1200 FLIGHTLINE BLVD, STE 5, DELAN FL 32724 |
Phyllis Rouse | officer: secretary | 1200 FLIGHLINE BLVD,, SUITE 5, DELAND FL 32724 |
Jay Hilden | officer: President & CEO | 1200 FLIGHLINE BLVD,, SUITE 5, DELAND FL 32724 |
Robert Adamo | director | 1200 FLIGHTLINE BOULEVARD, SUITE 5, DELAND FL 32724 |
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