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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Optex Systems Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Optex Systems Holdings (NAS:OPXS) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Optex Systems Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
OPXS vs SPAI, BYRN, VWAV: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Aerospace & Defense subindustry, Optex Systems Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Optex Systems Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Aerospace & Defense Industry
For the Aerospace & Defense industry and Industrials sector, Optex Systems Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Optex Systems Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Optex Systems Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-7.81
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% mean?
Optex Systems Holdings (OPXS) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% as of Jul. 28, 2026.
Is Optex Systems Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Optex Systems Holdings' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. Overall, Optex Systems Holdings has a GF Score™ of 91/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Optex Systems Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to SPAI and BYRN?
Optex Systems Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% can be compared against companies in the Aerospace & Defense industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Aerospace & Defense company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Aerospace & Defense industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Optex Systems Holdings's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Optex Systems Holdings stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Optex Systems Holdings (OPXS) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is $10.39, compared to a current price of $11.38 — trading 9.5% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. Optex Systems Holdings' overall GF Score™ is 91/100 with 1 warning sign to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Optex Systems Holdings (OPXS), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04% as of Jul. 28, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Optex Systems Holdings (OPXS) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Optex Systems Holdings stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $11.38 is trading 9.5% above its estimated GF Value™ of $10.39.
GuruFocus considers Optex Systems Holdings to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for OPXS:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.04%
GF Value™: $10.39 vs. price of $11.38 (9.5% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the OPXS stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Optex Systems Holdings Inc manufactures optical sighting systems and assemblies for the U.S. Department of Defense, foreign military applications, and commercial markets. Its products are installed on a variety of United States military land vehicles, such as the Abrams and Bradley fighting vehicles, light armored and security vehicles, and have been selected for installation on the Stryker family of vehicles. The company's operating segment includes Optex Systems Richardson, Applied Optics Center Dallas, and others. It generates maximum revenue from the Optex Systems Richardson segment. Some of its products include M17 Day/Thermal Periscope; DDAN / M36 Sights; Laser Protected Periscopes; Muzzle Reference Sensor, and others.
91GF Score
Get the complete analysis for OPXS
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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