Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Norcod AS's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.20%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Norcod AS (OSL:NCOD) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Norcod AS Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
OSL:NCOD vs ADM, BG, TSN: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Farm Products subindustry, Norcod AS's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Norcod AS Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Consumer Packaged Goods Industry
For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Norcod AS's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Norcod AS's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Norcod AS Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-6.21
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.20% mean?
Norcod AS (OSL:NCOD) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.20% as of Jul. 15, 2026.
Is Norcod AS's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Norcod AS's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.20%. Overall, Norcod AS has a GF Score™ of 54/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Norcod AS's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to ADM and BG?
Norcod AS's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.20% can be compared against companies in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Consumer Packaged Goods company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Consumer Packaged Goods industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Norcod AS's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.20%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Norcod AS stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Norcod AS (OSL:NCOD) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is kr6.54, compared to a current price of kr10.45 — trading 59.8% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.20%. Norcod AS's overall GF Score™ is 54/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Norcod AS (OSL:NCOD), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.20% as of Jul. 15, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Norcod AS (OSL:NCOD) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Norcod AS stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of kr10.45 is trading 59.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of kr6.54.
GuruFocus considers Norcod AS to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for OSL:NCOD:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.20%
GF Value™: kr6.54 vs. price of kr10.45 (59.8% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the OSL:NCOD stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Norcod AS is engaged in the business of commercial farming and selling Atlantic cod in marine facilities. The company serves customers world-wide. Its production is based in its natural cold-water habitat along the coast of Central and Northern Norway. The company's operating revenue is derived mainly from the sale of cod. The company has two operating segments: Farming, Includes activities related to fish farming operations from juvenile to harvest-ready biomass and sale of cod and liver in Norway and for export through the sales agent Sirena Group; and Harvesting, Includes harvesting activities, where farming generates maximum revenue.
54GF Score
Get the complete analysis for OSL:NCOD
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
OSL:NCOD has been successfully added to your 
