Douglas Dynamics (Douglas Dynamics) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.06% (As of Apr. 28, 2024)

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What is Douglas Dynamics Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Douglas Dynamics's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of Douglas Dynamics's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Auto Parts subindustry, Douglas Dynamics's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Douglas Dynamics's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Vehicles & Parts Industry

For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Douglas Dynamics's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Douglas Dynamics's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

Douglas Dynamics Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-7.43

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.06%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Douglas Dynamics (NYSE:PLOW) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Douglas Dynamics Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Douglas Dynamics (Douglas Dynamics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Douglas Dynamics Inc (NYSE:PLOW) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

5D4:Germany

Address

11270 W Park Place, Suite 300, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53224

Website

https://www.douglasdynamics.com

Douglas Dynamics Inc is a manufacturer and upfitter of commercial vehicle attachments and equipment. The Company's portfolio includes snow and ice management attachments sold under the BLIZZARD, FISHER, HENDERSON, SNOWEX and WESTERN brands, turf care equipment under the TURFEX brand and industrial maintenance equipment under the SWEEPEX brand. The Company's portfolio also includes the upfit of attachments and storage solutions under the HENDERSON brand, and the DEJANA brand and its related sub-brands. The Company also leases fifteen manufacturing and upfit and service facilities located in Iowa, Maryland, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. The Company conducts business in two segments: Work Truck Attachments and Work Truck Solutions.

Executives

Robert L Mccormick	officer: President and CEO	C/O DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC., 7777 NORTH 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53233
James L Janik	director	C/O DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC., 7777 NORTH 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53233
Genderen Mark Van	officer: President - Work Truck Attm.	C/O DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC., 11270 W. PARK PLACE, SUITE 300, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Linda R Evans	officer: VP of Human Resources	7777 N 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53223
Jon J Sisulak	officer: Controller	7777 N 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53223
Sarah C Lauber	officer: CFO and Secretary	833 EAST MICHIGAN STREET, SUITE 900, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Joher Akolawala	director	11270 W. PARK PLACE, SUITE 300, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Keith Hagelin	officer: VP, Operations	C/O DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC., 7777 NORTH 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53233
Jonathon P. Sievert	officer: President - Henderson Products	C/O DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC., 7777 NORTH 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53223
Lisa R Bacus	director	1601 CHESTNUT STREET, SHAREHOLDER SERVICES TL05Y, PHILADELPHIA PA 19192
Andrew Dejana	officer: * See Remarks below	C/O DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC., 777 NORTH 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53223
Robert J Young	officer: Controller	C/O DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC., 7777 NORTH 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53233
Mark Adamson	officer: VP, Sales and Marketing	C/O DOUGLAS DYNAMICS, INC., 7777 NORTH 73RD STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53233
Michael W Wickham	director	C/O ROADWAY CORP, 1077 GORGE BLVD, AKRON OH 44310
Margaret S Dano	director	FLEETWOOD ENTERPRISES INC, 3125 MYERS STREET PO BOX 7638, RIVERSIDE CA 92513-7638