Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
Douglas DynamicsPLOW +0.39%77 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 8.91% as of Jun. 2026, which is 64% below its 10-year median of 24.58. GuruFocus rates PLOW with a GF Score™ of 77/100 and a GF Value™ of $34.12 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 1 warning sign investors should review. Among 992 Vehicles & Parts companies, Douglas Dynamics ranks worse than 51.51% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Douglas Dynamics's forward rate of return for was 8.91%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Douglas Dynamics's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
PLOW'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 7.02 Med: 24.58 Max: 27.69
Current: 9.45
During the past 13 years, Douglas Dynamics's highest Forward Rate of Return was 27.69. The lowest was 7.02. And the median was 24.58.
PLOW's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked worse than 51.51% of 992
companies
in the Vehicles & Parts industry
Industry Median: 10.205
vs PLOW: 9.45
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Douglas Dynamics (NYSE:PLOW) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Douglas Dynamics Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Douglas Dynamics Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Douglas Dynamics's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Douglas Dynamics Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
PLOW vs XPEL, SMP, DCH: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Auto Parts subindustry, Douglas Dynamics's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Douglas Dynamics Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Vehicles & Parts Industry
For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Douglas Dynamics's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Douglas Dynamics's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Douglas Dynamics Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 8.91% mean?
Douglas Dynamics (PLOW) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 8.91% as of Jun. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Douglas Dynamics and its competitors. This is 64% below median its historical median of 24.58. Over the past decade, Douglas Dynamics' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 7.02 to 27.69. According to the industry distribution chart, Douglas Dynamics ranks #511 out of 992 companies in the Vehicles & Parts industry, placing it in the top 51.5%.
Is Douglas Dynamics' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Douglas Dynamics' current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 8.91% is 64% below median its 10-year median of 24.58. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 7.02 to a high of 27.69. The Vehicles & Parts industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 10.21. Douglas Dynamics' value of 8.91% is 12.7% below this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Douglas Dynamics ranks #511 out of 992 companies in the Vehicles & Parts industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Douglas Dynamics has a GF Score™ of 77/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Douglas Dynamics' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to XPEL and SMP?
According to the Vehicles & Parts industry distribution chart, Douglas Dynamics ranks #511 out of 992 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places Douglas Dynamics in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 10.21. Douglas Dynamics' value of 8.91% is 12.7% below this benchmark. Historically, Douglas Dynamics' own Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 7.02 to 27.69 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 24.58 vs. the industry median of 10.21, Douglas Dynamics has consistently been below the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Vehicles & Parts company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Vehicles & Parts companies is 10.21, based on 992 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Douglas Dynamics's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 8.91% is 12.7% below the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Douglas Dynamics and its competitors. For the Vehicles & Parts industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 10.21 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Douglas Dynamics's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 8.91%, which is 64% below median its own 10-year median of 24.58. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Douglas Dynamics stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Douglas Dynamics (PLOW) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $34.12, compared to a current price of $41.63 — trading 22% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 8.91%, which is 64% below median its 10-year median of 24.58 and 12.7% below the Vehicles & Parts industry median of 10.21. Douglas Dynamics' overall GF Score™ is 77/100 with 1 warning sign to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Douglas Dynamics (PLOW), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 8.91% as of Jun. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Douglas Dynamics (PLOW) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Douglas Dynamics stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $41.63 is trading 22% above its estimated GF Value™ of $34.12.
GuruFocus considers Douglas Dynamics to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for PLOW:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 8.91% (64% below median its 10-year median of 24.58)
GF Value™: $34.12 vs. price of $41.63 (22% above fair value)
Industry Position: 12.7% below the Vehicles & Parts median (#511 of 992)
No single metric tells the full story. See the PLOW stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Douglas Dynamics Inc is a manufacturer and upfitter of commercial vehicle attachments and equipment. The Company's portfolio includes snow and ice management attachments sold under the BLIZZARD, FISHER, HENDERSON, SNOWEX, and WESTERN brands, turf care equipment under the TURFEX brand, and industrial maintenance equipment under the SWEEPEX brand. The Company's portfolio also includes the upfit of attachments and storage solutions under the HENDERSON brand, and the DEJANA brand and its related sub-brands. The Company also leases fifteen manufacturing upfit and service facilities located in Iowa, Maryland, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. The Company conducts business in two segments: Work Truck Attachments and Work Truck Solutions.
77GF Score
Get the complete analysis for PLOW
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
PLOW has been successfully added to your 
