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Randolph Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.04% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Randolph Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Randolph Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Randolph Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Randolph Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Randolph Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Randolph Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.95

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.04%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=(Cash and cash equivalents + Money Market Investments) / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Randolph Bancorp  (NAS:RNDB) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Randolph Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Randolph Bancorp Business Description

Randolph Bancorp logo
Industry
Financial Services » Banks NAICS : 522110 SIC : 6022
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
10 Cabot Place, Stoughton, MA, USA, 02072
Randolph Bancorp Inc is a bank holding company of Envision Bank. The company is engaged in providing financial services to individuals, families, and small to mid-size businesses. The business of the company includes accepting deposits from the public and investing those deposits, commercial real estate loans, construction loans, investment securities, and consumer loans. The firm also offers deposit accounts, certificates of deposit, and money market accounts.
Executives
Kirwin Ryan J. officer: EVP/Residential Lending C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC. 10 CABOT PLACE STOUGHTON MA 02072
Parent William M director, officer: President and CEO C/O GRAIL INVESTMENT CORP. 767 THIRD AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10017
Olson Richard D. Jr. officer: SVP/Retail & Marketing C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC. 10 CABOT PLACE STOUGHTON MA 02072
Pierce Richard C. director C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC. 10 CABOT PLACE STOUGHTON MA 02072
Wentzell Janis E. director C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC. 10 CABOT PLACE STOUGHTON MA 02072
Welch James G. director C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC. 10 CABOT PLACE STOUGHTON MA 02072
Trubiano Louis J. director C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC. 10 CABOT PLACE STOUGHTON MA 02072
Joyce Daniel M. director C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC. 10 CABOT PLACE STOUGHTON MA 02072
Messmore Lauren officer: EVP, CFO and Treasurer 320 NORWOOD PARK SOUTH NORWOOD MA 02062
Quigley Kenneth K Jr director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: QUIGLEY KENNETH K JR a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Foresta Thomas A. officer: SVP/CIO C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC. 10 CABOT PLACE STOUGHTON MA 02072
Curry Nancy J. officer: SVP/Commercial Lending C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC. 10 CABOT PLACE STOUGHTON MA 02072
Thaxter Donna L. officer: SVP/Residential Operations C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC. 10 CABOT PLACE STOUGHTON MA 02072
Devlin Michael K officer: EVP, CFO and Treasurer C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC. 10 CABOT PLACE STOUGHTON MA 02072
Mcdonough James P director, officer: President and CEO C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC. 10 CABOT PLACE STOUGHTON MA 02072
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