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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Macnica Galaxy's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Macnica Galaxy (ROCO:6227) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Macnica Galaxy Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
ROCO:6227 vs SNX, ARW, AVT: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Electronics & Computer Distribution subindustry, Macnica Galaxy's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Macnica Galaxy Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Hardware Industry
For the Hardware industry and Technology sector, Macnica Galaxy's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Macnica Galaxy's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Macnica Galaxy Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-7.90
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% mean?
Macnica Galaxy (ROCO:6227) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% as of Jul. 21, 2026.
Is Macnica Galaxy's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Macnica Galaxy's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. Overall, Macnica Galaxy has a GF Score™ of 89/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Macnica Galaxy's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to SNX and ARW?
Macnica Galaxy's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% can be compared against companies in the Hardware industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Hardware company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Hardware industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Macnica Galaxy's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Macnica Galaxy stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Macnica Galaxy (ROCO:6227) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is NT$96.70, compared to a current price of NT$107.50 — trading 11.2% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. Macnica Galaxy's overall GF Score™ is 89/100. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Macnica Galaxy (ROCO:6227), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04% as of Jul. 21, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Macnica Galaxy (ROCO:6227) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Macnica Galaxy stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of NT$107.50 is trading 11.2% above its estimated GF Value™ of NT$96.70.
GuruFocus considers Macnica Galaxy to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for ROCO:6227:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.04%
GF Value™: NT$96.70 vs. price of NT$107.50 (11.2% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the ROCO:6227 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Macnica Galaxy Inc operates as a distributor of IC products in Taiwan. It offers products under the brands such as Altair, Averlogic, Chipone (iML), Cypress, Dialog semiconductor, Everspin, FTDI Chip, Genesys Logic and others. The company ahs two segments: Macnica Galaxy Inc segment is responsible for engaging in the agency trading and technical services of semiconductor electronic components; and Macnica Galaxy International segment is responsible for the import and export trade of electronic and electrical components and finished products. It derives maximum revenue from Macnica Galaxy Inc segment.
89GF Score
Get the complete analysis for ROCO:6227
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