SDST (Stardust Power) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 2.43% (As of Jun. 28, 2026)


SDST Stardust Power Inc SDST
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What is Stardust Power Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Stardust Power SDST +9.68% 10 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 2.43% as of Jun. 28, 2026. GuruFocus rates SDST with a GF Score™ of 10/100. The stock has 2 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Stardust Power's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 2.43%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Stardust Power  (NAS:SDST) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Stardust Power Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


SDST vs FLUX, CHEV, EPOW: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Electrical Equipment & Parts subindustry, Stardust Power's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Stardust Power Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Industrial Products Industry

For the Industrial Products industry and Industrials sector, Stardust Power's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Stardust Power's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


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Stardust Power Inc SDST
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Stardust Power Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-3.69

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=2.43%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 2.43% mean?
Stardust Power (SDST) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 2.43% as of Jun. 28, 2026.
Is Stardust Power's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Stardust Power's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 2.43%. Overall, Stardust Power has a GF Score™ of 10/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Stardust Power's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to FLUX and CHEV?
Stardust Power's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 2.43% can be compared against companies in the Industrial Products industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Industrial Products company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Industrial Products industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Stardust Power's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 2.43%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Stardust Power stock overvalued right now?
Stardust Power (SDST) has a current Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 2.43%. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 2.43%. Stardust Power's overall GF Score™ is 10/100 with 2 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Stardust Power (SDST), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 2.43% as of Jun. 28, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Stardust Power Business Description

Address 15 East Putnam Avenue, Suite 378, Greenwich, CT, USA, 06830
Stardust Power Inc is developing a lithium refinery at its Facility in Muskogee, Oklahoma, with planned capacity of producing up to 50,000 metric tons per annum of BGLC once fully operational. The company will source lithium brine feedstock from various suppliers and may make investments upstream to secure additional feedstock. The Company seeks to sell its products to electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers as the primary market, with potential applications in other areas such as battery manufacturers, the U.S. military, and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

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