CapAllianz Holdings (SGX:594) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 97.44% (As of Jul. 10, 2026)


What is CapAllianz Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

CapAllianz Holdings SGX:594 -50.00% Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 97.44% as of Jul. 10, 2026. The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, CapAllianz Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 97.44%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

CapAllianz Holdings  (SGX:594) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

CapAllianz Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

SGX:594 vs COP, EOG, FANG: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Oil & Gas E&P subindustry, CapAllianz Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

CapAllianz Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Oil & Gas Industry

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, CapAllianz Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where CapAllianz Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


CapAllianz Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=3.64

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=97.44%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 97.44% mean?
CapAllianz Holdings (SGX:594) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 97.44% as of Jul. 10, 2026.
Is CapAllianz Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
CapAllianz Holdings' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 97.44%.
How does CapAllianz Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to COP and EOG?
CapAllianz Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 97.44% can be compared against companies in the Oil & Gas industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Oil & Gas company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Oil & Gas industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. CapAllianz Holdings's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 97.44%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is CapAllianz Holdings stock overvalued right now?
CapAllianz Holdings (SGX:594) has a current Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 97.44%. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 97.44%. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For CapAllianz Holdings (SGX:594), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 97.44% as of Jul. 10, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

CapAllianz Holdings Business Description

Industry EnergyOil & Gas
Address 8 Wilkie Road, No. 03-01 Wilkie Edge, Singapore, SGP, 228095
CapAllianz Holdings Ltd is a company whose principal activities consist of investment holding, providing management services to its subsidiaries, and providing technical services. The company's operating and reportable segments are Oil and gas, Investment and trading, and Technical service. A majority of its revenue is generated from the Oil and gas segment which includes exploration, development, production, and drilling activities at the Thailand onshore oil concessions located at Phetchabun Basin. The company manages a portfolio of oil and gas investments with its core investment located in Thailand. Geographically, it derives its maximum revenue from Thailand and the rest from Singapore.