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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Sunoco LP's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Sunoco LP (NYSE:SUN) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Sunoco LP Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
SUN vs DINO, PBF, IEP: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing subindustry, Sunoco LP's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Sunoco LP Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Oil & Gas Industry
For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Sunoco LP's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Sunoco LP's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Sunoco LP Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-7.93
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% mean?
Sunoco LP (SUN) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% as of Aug. 05, 2026.
Is Sunoco LP's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Sunoco LP's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. Overall, Sunoco LP has a GF Score™ of 80/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Sunoco LP's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to DINO and PBF?
Sunoco LP's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% can be compared against companies in the Oil & Gas industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Oil & Gas company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Oil & Gas industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Sunoco LP's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Sunoco LP stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Sunoco LP (SUN) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $52.39, compared to a current price of $73.71 — trading 40.7% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. Sunoco LP's overall GF Score™ is 80/100 with 12 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Sunoco LP (SUN), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04% as of Aug. 05, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Sunoco LP (SUN) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Sunoco LP stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $73.71 is trading 40.7% above its estimated GF Value™ of $52.39.
GuruFocus considers Sunoco LP to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for SUN:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.04%
GF Value™: $52.39 vs. price of $73.71 (40.7% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the SUN stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Sunoco LP is a Delaware limited partnership formed in June 2012 by Susser Holdings Corporation or SUSS. In September 2012, the Company completed its initial public offering. The Company, along with its wholly owned subsidiary, is an independent motor fuel distributor by gallons in Texas, and among the distributors of Valero and Chevron branded motor fuel in the United States. The Company also receives rental income from real estate that it leases or subleases. SUSS operated approximately 580 retail convenience stores under its proprietary Stripes convenience store brand at year-end, mainly in growing Texas markets. Stripes is an independent chain of convenience stores in Texas based on store count and retail motor fuel volumes sold. Its business is integral to the success of SUSS' retail operations, and SUSS purchases substantially all of its motor fuel from the Company. In addition to distributing motor fuel, it also distributes other petroleum products such as propane and lube oil, and receives rental income from real estate that it leases or subleases. The Company purchases motor fuel mainly from independent refiners and oil companies and distributes it throughout Texas and in Louisiana, New Mexico and Oklahoma. The Company competes mainly with other independent motor fuel distributors. The Company is subject to various federal, state and local environmental laws and regulations, including those relating to underground storage tanks; the release or discharge of hazardous materials into the air, water and soil; the generation, storage, handling, use, transportation and disposal of regulated materials; the exposure of persons to regulated materials; and the remediation of contaminated soil and groundwater.
80GF Score
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