GMO Tech Holdings (TSE:415A) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.02% (As of Jul. 11, 2026)


TSE:415A GMO Tech Holdings Inc TSE:415A
72 GF Score
Price 円4,740.00
GF Value 円6,936.22
Valuation Possible Value Trap
! 3 Warning Signs
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What is GMO Tech Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

GMO Tech Holdings TSE:415A +0.32% 72 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02% as of Jul. 11, 2026. GuruFocus rates TSE:415A with a GF Score™ of 72/100 and a GF Value™ of 円6,936.22 (Possible Value Trap). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, GMO Tech Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


GMO Tech Holdings  (TSE:415A) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


GMO Tech Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


TSE:415A vs GOOGL, META, SPOT: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Internet Content & Information subindustry, GMO Tech Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


GMO Tech Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Interactive Media Industry

For the Interactive Media industry and Communication Services sector, GMO Tech Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where GMO Tech Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


TSE:415A
72GF Score
GMO Tech Holdings Inc TSE:415A
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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GMO Tech Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.64

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.02%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% mean?
GMO Tech Holdings (TSE:415A) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% as of Jul. 11, 2026.
Is GMO Tech Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
GMO Tech Holdings' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Overall, GMO Tech Holdings has a GF Score™ of 72/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does GMO Tech Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to GOOGL and META?
GMO Tech Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% can be compared against companies in the Interactive Media industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Interactive Media company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Interactive Media industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. GMO Tech Holdings's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is GMO Tech Holdings stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, GMO Tech Holdings (TSE:415A) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is 円6,936.22, compared to a current price of 円4,740.00 — trading 31.7% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. GMO Tech Holdings' overall GF Score™ is 72/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For GMO Tech Holdings (TSE:415A), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02% as of Jul. 11, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is GMO Tech Holdings (TSE:415A) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, GMO Tech Holdings stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of 円4,740.00 is trading 31.7% below its estimated GF Value™ of 円6,936.22. GuruFocus considers GMO Tech Holdings to be Possible Value Trap.

Key valuation signals for TSE:415A:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.02%
  • GF Value™: 円6,936.22 vs. price of 円4,740.00 (31.7% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 72/100 with 3 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the TSE:415A stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


GMO Tech Holdings Business Description

Address 26-1 Sakuragaoka-cho, Cerulean Tower, Shibuya, Tokyo, JPN, 150-8512
GMO Tech Holdings Inc Formerly Gmo Tech Inc provides internet marketing services. It also offers advertisement assistance services such as retargeting advertisements & Facebook advertisements and Search engine optimization services. The company operates business through two segments. The Customer Attraction Support segment offers SEM and affiliate marketing services. SEM includes map engine optimization (MEO) to improve store visibility on Google Maps and SEO consulting to boost homepage rankings. Affiliate services include GMO SmaAD and GMO SmaAFFi, which support performance-based and sales-driven advertising for smartphones. The Real Estate Tech segment operates application platforms for rental owners and tenants, and contract digitization services for real estate rental procedures.
72GF Score

Get the complete analysis for TSE:415A

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

円4,740.00
Price
円6,936.22
GF Value