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Nissan Motor Co (TSE:7201) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.06% (As of May. 01, 2024)


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What is Nissan Motor Co Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Nissan Motor Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of Nissan Motor Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Auto Manufacturers subindustry, Nissan Motor Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Nissan Motor Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Vehicles & Parts Industry

For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Nissan Motor Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Nissan Motor Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


Nissan Motor Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.34

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.06%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Nissan Motor Co  (TSE:7201) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Nissan Motor Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Nissan Motor Co (TSE:7201) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Nissan Motor Co Ltd (TSE:7201) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)
Comparable Companies
TSE:7270 TSE:7202 TSE:7272 TSE:7261 TSE:7269 TSE:7211 TSE:7222 TSE:7267 TSLA TSE:7203 XTER:P911 SZSE:002594 XTER:MBG MIL:RACE MIL:STLAM XTER:BMW XTER:VOW3 GM F NSE:MARUTI
Traded in Other Exchanges
NSANY:USA NSANF:USA NISA:Germany NISA:Austria
Address
1-1, Takashima 1-chome, Nishi-ku, Yokohama-shi, Kanagawa, JPN, 220-8686
Website
http://www.nissan-global.com
While Nissan sold 3.3 million vehicles last fiscal year, total calendar 2022 Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance sales volume of 6.5 million vehicles makes the group the fourth-largest vehicle seller in the world, behind Toyota at 10.3 million, Volkswagen at 8.5 million, and Hyundai/Kia with 6.8 million vehicles sold. Nissan's financial services subsidiary provides consumers with auto loans and leases but also finances Nissan's sales to its dealerships (known as floor-plan financing). Nissan is 43.4% owned by Renault, while Nissan in turn owns 15% of Renault. Nissan also owns a 34% stake in Mitsubishi Motors. Under a new alliance agreement expected to be completed before the end of December 2023, Nissan and Renault will have cross-shareholding capped at 15% voting rights for each company.

Nissan Motor Co (TSE:7201) Headlines

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