Impact Development Group (TSXV:IMPT) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 99.99% (As of Jul. 15, 2026)

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

What is Impact Development Group Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Impact Development Group TSXV:IMPT Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 99.99% as of Jul. 15, 2026. The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Impact Development Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 99.99%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Impact Development Group  (TSXV:IMPT) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Impact Development Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Impact Development Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Competitor Comparison

For the Real Estate - Development subindustry, Impact Development Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Impact Development Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Real Estate Industry

For the Real Estate industry and Real Estate sector, Impact Development Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Impact Development Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


Impact Development Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=9.44

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=99.99%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 99.99% mean?
Impact Development Group (TSXV:IMPT) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 99.99% as of Jul. 15, 2026.
Is Impact Development Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Impact Development Group's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 99.99%.
How does Impact Development Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to competitors?
Impact Development Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 99.99% can be compared against companies in the Real Estate industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Real Estate company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Real Estate industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Impact Development Group's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 99.99%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Impact Development Group stock overvalued right now?
Impact Development Group (TSXV:IMPT) has a current Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 99.99%. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 99.99%. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Impact Development Group (TSXV:IMPT), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 99.99% as of Jul. 15, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Impact Development Group Business Description

Address 40 Temperance Street, Suite 2700, Toronto, ON, CAN, M5C 2V9
Impact Development Group Inc is a Panamanian-based real estate developer that provides affordable housing solutions to Panama's growing middle class, supported by a longstanding subsidized government program. The Company acquires land and develops high-quality residential and commercial buildings. IHC also provides services including financing, architectural, engineering, off-site manufacturing, general contracting, property management, and administration.