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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, United States Antimony's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.18%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
For the Other Industrial Metals & Mining subindustry, United States Antimony's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, United States Antimony's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where United States Antimony's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
= | -6.30 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
= | 0.18% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
NIMTAAVG | = | Net Income | / | Market Total Assets |
= | Net Income | / | (Market Cap + Total Liabilities) |
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
TLMTA | = | Total Liabilities | / | Market Total Assets |
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
CASHMTA | = | Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities | / | Market Total Assets |
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
MB | = | Market Cap | / | Adjusted Book Equity |
= | Market Cap | / | (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity)) |
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
United States Antimony (AMEX:UAMY) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of United States Antimony's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Lloyd Bardswich | director | 571 CEDAR HILLS ROAD, WHITEHALL MT 59759 |
Gary C Evans | director | 1048 TEXAN TRAIL, GRAPEVINE TX 76051 |
Timothy Hasara | director | 7733 FORSYTH BLVD, CLAYTON MO 63105 |
John C. Gustavsen | officer: Interim CEO | PO BOX 876, THOMPSON FALLS MT 59873 |
Daniel Lyle Parks | officer: Chief Financial Officer | PO BOX 2525, 538 BIG HORN DRIVE, THOMPSON FALLS MT 59873 |
Kenneth M Reed | 10 percent owner | 328 ADAMS STREET, MILTON MA 02186 |
Craig W Thomas | director | 2100 CRESCENT AVENUE, CHARLOTTE NC 28207 |
Whitney H. Ferer | director | 2910 NORTH 9TH ST., CARTER LAKE IA 51510 |
Jeffrey D. Wright | director | 9036 NE 28TH ST., CLYDE HILL WA 98004 |
John C Lawrence | director, officer: President | 4946 ROUTE 200, THOMPSON FALLS MT 59873 |
Bernard John Guarnera | director | 9213 LAS MANAITAS AVENUE, SUITE 401, LAS VEGAS NV 89144 |
Patrick W Dugan | 10 percent owner | 1415 LOUISIANA SUITE 3100, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
Lydia Dugan | 10 percent owner | 1415 LOUISIANA, SUITE 3100, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
Russ C Lawrence | director | 1500 JOHNSON ROAD, DEARY ID 83823 |
Gary D Babbitt | director | 7709 WEST PRINCE ST., BOISE ID 83714 |
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