Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (XMAD:CCEP) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.02% (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


XMAD:CCEP Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC XMAD:CCEP
87 GF Score
Price €88.00
GF Value €84.41
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 4 Warning Signs
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What is Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners XMAD:CCEP +0.34% 87 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates XMAD:CCEP with a GF Score™ of 87/100 and a GF Value™ of €84.41 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Coca-Cola Europacific Partners's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Coca-Cola Europacific Partners  (XMAD:CCEP) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


XMAD:CCEP vs KO, PEP, MNST: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic subindustry, Coca-Cola Europacific Partners's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic Industry

For the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Coca-Cola Europacific Partners's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Coca-Cola Europacific Partners's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


XMAD:CCEP
87GF Score
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC XMAD:CCEP
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.70

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.02%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% mean?
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (XMAD:CCEP) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% as of Jun. 25, 2026.
Is Coca-Cola Europacific Partners' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Overall, Coca-Cola Europacific Partners has a GF Score™ of 87/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Coca-Cola Europacific Partners' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to KO and PEP?
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% can be compared against companies in the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Beverages - Non-Alcoholic company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Coca-Cola Europacific Partners's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Coca-Cola Europacific Partners stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (XMAD:CCEP) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is €84.41, compared to a current price of €88.00 — trading 4.3% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Coca-Cola Europacific Partners' overall GF Score™ is 87/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (XMAD:CCEP), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (XMAD:CCEP) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Coca-Cola Europacific Partners stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of €88.00 is trading 4.3% above its estimated GF Value™ of €84.41. GuruFocus considers Coca-Cola Europacific Partners to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for XMAD:CCEP:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.02%
  • GF Value™: €84.41 vs. price of €88.00 (4.3% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 87/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the XMAD:CCEP stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Business Description

Address Bakers Road, Pemberton House, Uxbridge, GBR, UB8 1EZ
CCEP is the second-largest bottling partner in the Coca-Cola system by volume, behind Coca-Cola Femsa, and primarily operates in developed Europe, Australasia, and Southeast Asia. In 2025, CCEP sold 3.9 billion unit cases of beverages, which we estimate equates to roughly 9% of the global Coke system volume.TCCC owns 19% of the equity of CCEP, Olive Partners, a holding company of bottling operations, owns a further 36%, and the remaining 45% is free float.
87GF Score

Get the complete analysis for XMAD:CCEP

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

€88.00
Price
€84.41
GF Value