Chilime Hydropower Co (XNEP:CHCL) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.02% (As of Jul. 24, 2026)

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Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
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XNEP:CHCL Chilime Hydropower Co Ltd XNEP:CHCL
73 GF Score
Price NPR494.00
GF Value NPR197.21
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 8 Warning Signs
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What is Chilime Hydropower Co Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Chilime Hydropower Co XNEP:CHCL -0.24% 73 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02% as of Jul. 24, 2026. GuruFocus rates XNEP:CHCL with a GF Score™ of 73/100 and a GF Value™ of NPR197.21 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 8 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Chilime Hydropower Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Chilime Hydropower Co  (XNEP:CHCL) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Chilime Hydropower Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


Chilime Hydropower Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Competitor Comparison

For the Utilities - Renewable subindustry, Chilime Hydropower Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Chilime Hydropower Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers Industry

For the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry and Utilities sector, Chilime Hydropower Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Chilime Hydropower Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


XNEP:CHCL
73GF Score
Chilime Hydropower Co Ltd XNEP:CHCL
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Chilime Hydropower Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.63

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.02%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% mean?
Chilime Hydropower Co (XNEP:CHCL) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% as of Jul. 24, 2026.
Is Chilime Hydropower Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Chilime Hydropower Co's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Overall, Chilime Hydropower Co has a GF Score™ of 73/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Chilime Hydropower Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to competitors?
Chilime Hydropower Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% can be compared against companies in the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Utilities - Independent Power Producers company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Chilime Hydropower Co's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Chilime Hydropower Co stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Chilime Hydropower Co (XNEP:CHCL) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is NPR197.21, compared to a current price of NPR494.00 — trading 150.5% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Chilime Hydropower Co's overall GF Score™ is 73/100 with 8 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Chilime Hydropower Co (XNEP:CHCL), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02% as of Jul. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Chilime Hydropower Co (XNEP:CHCL) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Chilime Hydropower Co stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of NPR494.00 is trading 150.5% above its estimated GF Value™ of NPR197.21. GuruFocus considers Chilime Hydropower Co to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for XNEP:CHCL:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.02%
  • GF Value™: NPR197.21 vs. price of NPR494.00 (150.5% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 73/100 with 8 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the XNEP:CHCL stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Chilime Hydropower Co Business Description

Address Dhumbarahi-4, Chilime Tower, P.O.Box: 25210, Kathmandu, NPL
Chilime Hydropower Co Ltd is a company operating in the utility sector. The company is mainly engaged in the generation of hydroelectricity. It owns and operates a power plant with a 22.1 MW installed capacity and is located in the capital city of Kathmandu. The company sells bulk electricity to the Nepal Electricity Authority. The company, through its subsidiaries, develops hydropower projects.
73GF Score

Get the complete analysis for XNEP:CHCL

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

NPR494.00
Price
NPR197.21
GF Value