Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (XTER:CVG) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
XTER:CVG vs LLY, JNJ, ABBV: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Drug Manufacturers - General subindustry, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Drug Manufacturers Industry
For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where CSPC Pharmaceutical Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-7.81
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% mean?
CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (XTER:CVG) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% as of Jun. 25, 2026.
Is CSPC Pharmaceutical Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
CSPC Pharmaceutical Group's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. Overall, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group has a GF Score™ of 88/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does CSPC Pharmaceutical Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to LLY and JNJ?
CSPC Pharmaceutical Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% can be compared against companies in the Drug Manufacturers industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Drug Manufacturers company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Drug Manufacturers industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. CSPC Pharmaceutical Group's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is CSPC Pharmaceutical Group stock overvalued right now?
CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (XTER:CVG) has a current Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04%. The stock's GF Value™ is €0.40, compared to a current price of €0.40 — trading right at its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. CSPC Pharmaceutical Group's overall GF Score™ is 88/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (XTER:CVG), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (XTER:CVG) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of €0.40 is trading 0% below its estimated GF Value™ of €0.40.
Key valuation signals for XTER:CVG:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.04%
GF Value™: €0.40 vs. price of €0.40 (0% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the XTER:CVG stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
CSPC Pharmaceutical Group LTD is engaged in the manufacture and sale of pharmaceutical products. The group's segments include: Finished drugs, consisting research and development, manufacture and sale of pharmaceutical products and license fee income; Bulk products, that manufacture and sale of vitamin C, and antibiotic products in bulk powder form; and Functional food and others, that manufacture and sale of functional food products (including caffeine food additives, anhydrous glucose, acarbose and vitamin C buccal tablets), provision of healthcare service and others. It derives maximum revenue from Finished Products segments. Geographically, the company operates in Chinese Mainland, which Chinese Mainland generates maximum revenue; Other Asian regions; Europe; North America; and Others.
88GF Score
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