Novartis AG (XSWX:NOVN) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share: CHF5.25 (As of Mar. 2026)

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XSWX:NOVN Novartis AG XSWX:NOVN
82 GF Score
Price CHF122.00
GF Value CHF103.38
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 6 Warning Signs
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What is Novartis AG Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?

Novartis AG XSWX:NOVN -0.34% 82 Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is CHF5.25 as of Mar. 2026. GuruFocus rates XSWX:NOVN with a GF Score™ of 82/100 and a GF Value™ of CHF103.38 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review.

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.

Novartis AG's adjusted free cash flow per share for the three months ended in Mar. 2026 was CHF1.179. Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share for the past 10 years together and divide the count will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share, which is CHF5.25 for the trailing ten years ended in Mar. 2026.

During the past 12 months, Novartis AG's average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 6.30% per year. During the past 3 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 4.80% per year. During the past 5 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 4.40% per year. During the past 10 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 2.60% per year. Please click Growth Rate Calculation Example (GuruFocus) to see how GuruFocus calculates Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT)'s revenue growth rate. You can apply the same method to get the Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate using Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share data.

During the past 13 years, the highest 3-Year average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate of Novartis AG was 4.80% per year. The lowest was 0.50% per year. And the median was 1.80% per year.

As of today (2026-07-16), Novartis AG's current stock price is CHF122.00. Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share for the quarter that ended in Mar. 2026 was CHF5.25. Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of today is 23.24.

During the past 13 years, the highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of Novartis AG was 25.44. The lowest was 15.04. And the median was 18.32.


Novartis AG  (XSWX:NOVN) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Explanation

If a company grows much fast than inflation, Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share may underestimate the company's free cash flow. Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF can seem to be too high even the actual Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow is low.

For the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, the free cash flow per share of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/FCF calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF is also called CAPFCF Ratio.

The Shiller PE Ratio was first used by professor Robert Shiller. He uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings per share of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted free cash flow per share of a company over the past 10 years.

Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of today is calculated as

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF=Share Price/Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
=122.00/5.25
=23.24

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

During the past 13 years, the highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of Novartis AG was 25.44. The lowest was 15.04. And the median was 18.32.


Be Aware

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF works better for cyclical companies. It gives you a better idea on the company's real free cash flow value.


Novartis AG Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Related Terms


Novartis AG Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Novartis AG Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Chart

Novartis AG Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 4.27 4.46 4.66 4.86 5.13

Novartis AG Quarterly Data
Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 4.94 5.13 5.25 5.13 5.25

XSWX:NOVN vs LLY, JNJ, ABBV: Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Comparison

For the Drug Manufacturers - General subindustry, Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Novartis AG Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF vs Drug Manufacturers Industry

For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF falls into.


XSWX:NOVN
82GF Score
Novartis AG XSWX:NOVN
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Novartis AG Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Calculation

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.

What is Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share? How do we calculate Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?

Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years. Let's use an example to explain.

If we want to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of Wal-Mart (WMT) for Dec. 31, 2010, we need to have the inflation data and the free cash flow per share from 2001 through 2010.

We adjusted the 2001 free cash flow per share data with the total inflation from 2001 through 2010 to the equivalent free cash flow in 2010. If the total inflation from 2001 to 2010 is 40%, and Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 a share in 2001, then the 2001's equivalent free cash flow in 2010 is $1.4 a share. If Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 again in 2002, and the total inflation from 2002 through 2010 is 35%, then the equivalent 2002 free cash flow in 2010 is $1.35. So on and so forth, you get the equivalent free cash flow per share of past 10 years. Then you add them together and divided the sum by the count to get Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.

Please note that we use the CPI data of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the CPI data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the CPI data of the United States as default.

For example, Novartis AG's adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share data for the three months ended in Mar. 2026 was:

Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare= Free Cash Flow per Share /CPI of Mar. 2026 (Change)*Current CPI (Mar. 2026)
=1.179/108.0600*108.0600
=1.179

Current CPI (Mar. 2026) = 108.0600.

Novartis AG Quarterly Data

Free Cash Flow per Share CPI Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare
201606 0.984 100.088 1.062
201609 0.936 99.604 1.015
201612 1.197 99.380 1.302
201703 0.625 100.040 0.675
201706 1.236 100.285 1.332
201709 1.190 100.254 1.283
201712 1.209 100.213 1.304
201803 0.743 100.836 0.796
201806 1.460 101.435 1.555
201809 1.329 101.246 1.418
201812 1.320 100.906 1.414
201903 0.767 101.571 0.816
201906 1.131 102.044 1.198
201909 1.724 101.396 1.837
201912 1.237 101.063 1.323
202003 0.856 101.048 0.915
202006 1.449 100.743 1.554
202009 1.005 100.585 1.080
202012 1.160 100.241 1.250
202103 0.522 100.800 0.560
202106 1.421 101.352 1.515
202109 1.796 101.533 1.911
202112 1.356 101.776 1.440
202203 0.328 103.205 0.343
202206 1.392 104.783 1.436
202209 1.897 104.835 1.955
202212 1.560 104.666 1.611
202303 1.121 106.245 1.140
202306 1.151 106.576 1.167
202309 2.035 106.570 2.063
202312 0.736 106.461 0.747
202403 0.479 107.355 0.482
202406 1.812 107.991 1.813
202409 2.293 107.468 2.306
202412 1.360 107.128 1.372
202503 0.960 107.722 0.963
202506 2.533 108.075 2.533
202509 2.355 107.710 2.363
202512 0.513 107.200 0.517
202603 1.179 108.060 1.179

Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share together and divide 10 will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.

What does a Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of CHF5.25 mean?
Novartis AG (XSWX:NOVN) has a Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of CHF5.25 as of Mar. 2026. Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share represents the company's inflation-adjusted FCF per share over a 10-year period. View historical data on Novartis AG and its competitors.
Is Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share too high?
Novartis AG's current Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is CHF5.25. Overall, Novartis AG has a GF Score™ of 82/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share compare to LLY and JNJ?
Novartis AG's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of CHF5.25 can be compared against companies in the Drug Manufacturers industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share for a Drug Manufacturers company?
A good Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share depends on the Drug Manufacturers industry context. However, Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share mean?
A high Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share represents the company's inflation-adjusted FCF per share over a 10-year period. View historical data on Novartis AG and its competitors. Novartis AG's current Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is CHF5.25. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Novartis AG stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Novartis AG (XSWX:NOVN) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is CHF103.38, compared to a current price of CHF122.00 — trading 18% above its estimated fair value. The current Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is CHF5.25. Novartis AG's overall GF Score™ is 82/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share calculated?
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Novartis AG (XSWX:NOVN), the current Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is CHF5.25 as of Mar. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Novartis AG (XSWX:NOVN) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Novartis AG stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of CHF122.00 is trading 18% above its estimated GF Value™ of CHF103.38. GuruFocus considers Novartis AG to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for XSWX:NOVN:

  • Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share: CHF5.25
  • GF Value™: CHF103.38 vs. price of CHF122.00 (18% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 82/100 with 6 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the XSWX:NOVN stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Novartis AG Business Description

Address Lichtstrasse 35, Basel, CHE, 4056
Novartis develops and manufactures innovative drugs. Key areas of drug development are oncology, immunology, neuroscience, respiratory, and cardiovascular, renal, and metabolic. It also has an established medicines business, which includes off-patent franchises. The company sells its products globally, with the United States constituting close to one-third of total revenue.
82GF Score

Get the complete analysis for XSWX:NOVN

Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

CHF122.00
Price
CHF103.38
GF Value