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Harley-Davidson (XSWX:HOG) Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF : (As of May. 25, 2024)


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What is Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF?

Note: If the price history is too short, we do not calculate current Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF for this stock. All the historical data is shown as the company's primary share's data instead.

Shiller PE for Stocks: The True Measure of Stock Valuation


Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Chart

Harley-Davidson Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 8.41 7.81 7.20 7.56 6.56

Harley-Davidson Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 6.70 6.19 5.82 6.56 7.74

Competitive Comparison of Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF

For the Recreational Vehicles subindustry, Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Distribution in the Vehicles & Parts Industry

For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF falls into.



Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Calculation

Like the Shiller PE Ratio, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF takes the Free Cash Flow per Share from the past 10 years, adjusts it for inflation, and then calculates the average. This average is then used for the P/FCF calculation. Because it considers this 10-year average, it's often referred to as the CAPFCF Ratio.

The Shiller PE Ratio was first used by professor Robert Shiller to measure the valuation of the overall market. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF.

Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share for the quarter that ended in Mar. 2024 is calculated as:

For example, Harley-Davidson's adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share data for the three months ended in Mar. 2024 was:

Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare=Free Cash Flow per Share/CPI of Mar. 2024 (Change)*Current CPI (Mar. 2024)
=0.3/131.7762*131.7762
=0.300

Current CPI (Mar. 2024) = 131.7762.

Harley-Davidson Quarterly Data

Free Cash Flow per Share CPI Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare
201406 1.301 100.560 1.705
201409 1.514 100.428 1.987
201412 0.309 99.070 0.411
201503 0.632 99.621 0.836
201506 1.752 100.684 2.293
201509 1.679 100.392 2.204
201512 -0.219 99.792 -0.289
201603 0.008 100.470 0.010
201606 1.853 101.688 2.401
201609 2.259 101.861 2.922
201612 0.879 101.863 1.137
201703 0.731 102.862 0.936
201706 2.326 103.349 2.966
201709 1.567 104.136 1.983
201712 -0.210 104.011 -0.266
201803 0.907 105.290 1.135
201806 2.921 106.317 3.620
201809 1.908 106.507 2.361
201812 -0.060 105.998 -0.075
201903 -0.015 107.251 -0.018
201906 2.407 108.070 2.935
201909 1.826 108.329 2.221
201912 -0.234 108.420 -0.284
202003 -0.233 108.902 -0.282
202006 3.260 108.767 3.950
202009 2.679 109.815 3.215
202012 0.021 109.897 0.025
202103 0.785 111.754 0.926
202106 2.463 114.631 2.831
202109 1.392 115.734 1.585
202112 -0.046 117.630 -0.052
202203 0.606 121.301 0.658
202206 0.443 125.017 0.467
202209 1.715 125.227 1.805
202212 -0.508 125.222 -0.535
202303 0.008 127.348 0.008
202306 1.702 128.729 1.742
202309 1.286 129.860 1.305
202312 -0.103 129.419 -0.105
202403 0.300 131.776 0.300

Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share together and divide 10 will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.

Please note that we use the CPI data of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the CPI data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the CPI data of the United States as default.


Harley-Davidson  (XSWX:HOG) Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Explanation

Compared with the regular Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow, which works poorly for cyclical businesses, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF smoothed out the fluctuations of free cash flow during business cycles. Therefore it is more accurate in reflecting the valuation of the company.

If a company has consistent business performance, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF should give similar results to regular Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow.


Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Harley-Davidson (XSWX:HOG) Business Description

Address
3700 West Juneau Avenue, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53208
Harley-Davidson is a global leading manufacturer of heavyweight motorcycles, merchandise, parts, and accessories. It sells custom, cruiser, and touring motorcycles and offers a complete line of Harley-Davidson motorcycle parts, accessories, riding gear, and apparel, as well as merchandise. Harley-Davidson Financial Services provides wholesale financing to dealers and retail financing and insurance brokerage services to customers. Harley has historically captured about half of all heavyweight domestic retail motorcycle registrations, a metric it had ceded in 2020 as it repositioned the business, and has yet to restore (at 39% in the third quarter). In recent years the firm has expanded into the adventure touring market with its Pan America model and into electric with the LiveWire brand.