GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Evolution Petroleum Corp (AMEX:EPM) » Definitions » Earnings Power Value (EPV)

Evolution Petroleum (Evolution Petroleum) Earnings Power Value (EPV)

: $1.42 (As of Dec23)
View and export this data going back to 1996. Start your Free Trial

As of Dec23, Evolution Petroleum's earnings power value is $1.42. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is -295.23

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Evolution Petroleum Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Evolution Petroleum's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Evolution Petroleum Annual Data
Trend Jun14 Jun15 Jun16 Jun17 Jun18 Jun19 Jun20 Jun21 Jun22 Jun23
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 2.20 1.57 1.71 0.90 2.18

Evolution Petroleum Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 1.98 2.99 2.18 1.82 1.42

Competitive Comparison

For the Oil & Gas E&P subindustry, Evolution Petroleum's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Evolution Petroleum Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Evolution Petroleum's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Evolution Petroleum's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Evolution Petroleum Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Evolution Petroleum's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 72.25
DDA 9.04
Operating Margin % 21.95
SGA * 25% 1.80
Tax Rate % 5.47
Maintenance Capex 13.47
Cash and Cash Equivalents 8.46
Short-Term Debt 0.10
Long-Term Debt 0.10
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 32.90

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 21.95%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $72.25 Mil, Average Operating Margin = 21.95%, Average Adjusted SGA = 1.80,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 72.25 * 21.95% +1.80 = $17.658251213 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 5.47%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $17.658251213 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 17.658251213 * ( 1 - 5.47% ) = $16.692874619185 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 9.04 * 0.5 * 5.47% = $0.247190405 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 16.692874619185 + 0.247190405 = $16.940065024185 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Evolution Petroleum's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $13.47 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Evolution Petroleum's current cash and cash equivalent = $8.46 Mil.
Evolution Petroleum's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 0.10 + 0.10 = $0.198 Mil.
Evolution Petroleum's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 32.90 Mil.

Evolution Petroleum's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Dec23 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 16.940065024185 - 13.47)/ 9%+8.46-0.198 )/32.90
=1.42

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( 1.421967248965-5.62 )/1.421967248965
= -295.23%

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Evolution Petroleum  (AMEX:EPM) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Evolution Petroleum Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Evolution Petroleum's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Evolution Petroleum (Evolution Petroleum) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1155 Dairy Ashford Road, Suite 425, Houston, TX, USA, 77079
Evolution Petroleum Corp is an independent oil and gas company operating in the US. It is engaged primarily in the acquisition, exploitation, and development of properties for the production of crude oil and natural gas, onshore in the United States. The company's revenues are primarily generated from its crude oil, natural gas and NGL production from the Jonah Field in Sublette County, Wyoming; the Williston Basin in North Dakota; the Barnett Shale located in North Texas; the Hamilton Dome Field in Wyoming; and the Delhi Field in Northeast Louisiana. The revenue generated by the company includes royalty, mineral and working interests.
Executives
John Mark Bunch officer: COO 1155 DAIRY ASHFORD RD., SUITE 425, HOUSTON TX 77079
Kelly Beatty officer: Principal Accounting Officer 1155 DAIRY ASHFORD RD., SUITE 425, HOUSTON TX 77079
Myra C Bierria director 1155 DAIRY ASHFORD, SUITE 425, HOUSTON TX 77079
Ryan Stash officer: SVP & CFO 1155 DAIRY ASHFORD ROAD, SUITE 425, HOUSTON TX 77079
Roderick A. Schultz officer: Chief Accounting Officer 4621 PINERIDGE STREET, HOUSTON TX 77009
Marjorie Anne Hargrave director 999 18TH STREET, SUITE 1925N, DENVER CO 80202
Jason E. Brown officer: President & CEO 1000 LOUISIANA, SUITE 6700, HOUSTON TX 77002
Marran H. Ogilvie director 599 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
David Joe officer: VP, Chief Admin. Officer 2500 CITYWEST BLVD., SUITE 1300, HOUSTON TX 77042
Jvl Advisors, L.l.c. 10 percent owner 10,000 MEMORIAL DRIVE, SUITE 550, HOUSTON TX 77024
Randall D Keys officer: President, CFO & Treasurer 3 HICKORY SHADOWS DR, HOUSTON TX 77055
Peninsula Capital Management Inc director 235 PINE STREET, SUITE 1600, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Kelly William Loyd director 10000 MEMORIAL DRIVE, SUITE 550, HOUSTON TX 77024
William Dozier director 3000 SAGE #1312, HOUSTON TX 77056
Gene G Stoever director 5415 GRAYSTONE LANE, HOUSTON TX 77069