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Everest Medicines (HKSE:01952) Earnings Power Value (EPV) : HK$-4,235.09 (As of Dec23)


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What is Everest Medicines Earnings Power Value (EPV)?

As of Dec23, Everest Medicines's earnings power value is HK$-4,235.09. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is N/A.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Everest Medicines Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Everest Medicines's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Everest Medicines Earnings Power Value (EPV) Chart

Everest Medicines Annual Data
Trend Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial - - - -429.46 -4,235.09

Everest Medicines Semi-Annual Data
Dec18 Dec19 Jun20 Dec20 Jun21 Dec21 Jun22 Dec22 Jun23 Dec23
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - -429.46 - -4,235.09

Competitive Comparison of Everest Medicines's Earnings Power Value (EPV)

For the Biotechnology subindustry, Everest Medicines's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Everest Medicines's Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution in the Biotechnology Industry

For the Biotechnology industry and Healthcare sector, Everest Medicines's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Everest Medicines's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Everest Medicines Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Everest Medicines's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 5 Years Last Year
Revenue 30.4
DDA 41.0
Operating Margin % -391,654.34
SGA * 25% 103.8
Tax Rate % 0.00
Maintenance Capex 475.7
Cash and Cash Equivalents 2,570.0
Short-Term Debt 45.2
Long-Term Debt 513.3
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 313.1

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = -391,654.34%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = HK$30.4 Mil, Average Operating Margin = -391,654.34%, Average Adjusted SGA = 103.8,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 30.4 * -391,654.34% +103.8 = HK$-119031.9724505 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 0.00%, and "Normalized" EBIT = HK$-119031.9724505 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = -119031.9724505 * ( 1 - 0.00% ) = HK$-119031.9724505 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 41.0 * 0.5 * 0.00% = HK$0 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = -119031.9724505 + 0 = HK$-119031.9724505 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Everest Medicines's Average Maintenance CAPEX = HK$475.7 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Everest Medicines's current cash and cash equivalent = HK$2,570.0 Mil.
Everest Medicines's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 513.3 + 45.2 = HK$558.512 Mil.
Everest Medicines's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 313.1 Mil.

Everest Medicines's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Dec23 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( -119031.9724505 - 475.7)/ 9%+2,570.0-558.512 )/313.1
=-4,235.09

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( -4235.0938788854-20.00 )/-4235.0938788854
= N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Everest Medicines  (HKSE:01952) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Everest Medicines Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

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Everest Medicines (HKSE:01952) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1168 West Nanjing Road, 16th Floor, CITIC Pacific Plaza, Jing’an District, Shanghai, CHN, 200041
Everest Medicines Ltd is a biopharmaceutical company that integrates discovery, licensing, clinical development, commercialization, and manufacturing of potentially novel or differentiated therapies and vaccines to address critical unmet medical needs initially in the Asia Pacific markets and eventually around the world. Its product pipeline includes; Nefecon (TarpeyoTM), EVER001 (previously known as XNW1011), PTX-COVID19-B, Eravacycline (Xerava), EVER206 (also known as SPR206), and others.
Executives
Fu Wei 2307 Founder of a discretionary trust who can infl
Nova Aqua Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
C-bridge Joint Value Creation Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Everest Management Holding Co., Ltd. 2101 Beneficial owner
Ra Capital Management, L.p. 2102 Investment manager
Kolchinsky Peter 2305 Beneficiary of a trust
Kolchinsky Anna Inge Leonore Haas 2202 Interest of your spouse
Ra Capital Healthcare Fund, L.p. 2101 Beneficial owner
Ra Capital Healthcare Fund Gp, Llc 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Fu Wei 2307 Founder of a discretionary trust who can infl
Janchor Partners Limited 2102 Investment manager
C-bridge Capital Gp, Ltd. 2501 Other
Vistra Trust (singapore) Pte. Limited 2501 Other
C-bridge Capital Gp Iv, Ltd. 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
C-bridge Iv Investment Nine Limited 2101 Beneficial owner

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