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Jinpan International (FRA:3QN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : €7.74 (As of May. 25, 2024)


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What is Jinpan International Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-05-25), Jinpan International's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is €7.74.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Jinpan International's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Jinpan International is 34.50%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Jinpan International's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

FRA:3QN's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked *
in the Hardware industry.
Industry Median: 1.02
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

Jinpan International Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Jinpan International's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Jinpan International Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Jinpan International Annual Data
Trend Dec05 Dec06 Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
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Jinpan International Quarterly Data
Dec10 Mar11 Jun11 Sep11 Dec11 Mar12 Jun12 Sep12 Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Sep13 Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Jinpan International's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Electronic Components subindustry, Jinpan International's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Jinpan International's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Hardware Industry

For the Hardware industry and Technology sector, Jinpan International's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Jinpan International's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.



Jinpan International Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.47%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Jinpan International's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = €0.6705.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Jinpan International's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Dividends per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=0.6705*11.5406
=7.74

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)-Current Price) /Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
= (7.74 - 5.07) / 7.74
= 34.50 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Jinpan International  (FRA:3QN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Jinpan International Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

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Jinpan International (FRA:3QN) Business Description

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GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Jinpan International Ltd (FRA:3QN) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
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Jinpan International Ltd was incorporated in the British Virgin Islands on April 3, 1997 under the International Business Companies Act of the British Virgin Islands. The Company design, manufacture and sells electrical power control and distribution equipment that are used in commercial, industrial, and infrastructural applications. Its product lines include cast resin transformers, VPI transformers, VPI line reactors, switchgears and unit substations. Its manufactures low and medium voltage switchgear products under license from Schneider. It also manufactures switchgears, Vacuum Pressure Impregnated (VPI) reactors and transformers, and unit substations. The Company offers switchgear products for general power distribution and for specialized infrastructural and industrial applications. The two main categories of dry type transformers that currently dominate the market are cast resin and open ventilated dry type transformers. Cast resin dry type transformers are predominant in Europe, Japan, and newly developed markets in Asia, including China. Open ventilated dry type transformers are widely used in North America. The Company manufactures medium and low voltage switchgear products for the China market. They use sheet metal to manufacture switchgear enclosures, coat the enclosure, and assemble switchgears using components from brand name suppliers such as Siemens and Schneider. The Company owns the rights to the trademark 'JST,' which is registered with the Trademark Bureau of the State Administration of Industry and Commerce in China.

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