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Acino Holding AG (FRA:S3H) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : €9.21 (As of Jun. 10, 2024)


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What is Acino Holding AG Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-06-10), Acino Holding AG's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is €9.21.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Acino Holding AG's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Acino Holding AG is -919.76%.

The industry rank for Acino Holding AG's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

FRA:S3H's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked *
in the Drug Manufacturers industry.
Industry Median: 1.43
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

Acino Holding AG Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Acino Holding AG's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Acino Holding AG Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Acino Holding AG Annual Data
Trend Dec04 Dec05 Dec06 Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
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Acino Holding AG Semi-Annual Data
Dec03 Dec04 Dec05 Dec06 Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Acino Holding AG's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Drug Manufacturers - General subindustry, Acino Holding AG's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Acino Holding AG's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Drug Manufacturers Industry

For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, Acino Holding AG's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Acino Holding AG's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.



Acino Holding AG Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 7%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 0.69%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Acino Holding AG's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = €0.571.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Acino Holding AG's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.07) = 0.98130841121495
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.07) = 0.97196261682243

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=0.571*16.1327
=9.21

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(9.21-93.92)/9.21
=-919.76 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Acino Holding AG  (FRA:S3H) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Acino Holding AG Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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Acino Holding AG (FRA:S3H) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
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Address
Acino Holding AG is a Switzerland-based company engaged in the pharmaceutical industry. The Company develops, manufactures, and markets pharmaceuticals in novel drug delivery forms internationally. It is divided into four segments Business to Consumer (BtC); Business to Business (BtB); Technology marketing (TM); and Production (Prod). The BtC segment comprises all direct marketing activities. Under the company's "Acino Switzerland" brand and, with the promise of Swiss quality, the company sells its products in emerging markets around the globe. This reporting segment includes the business purchased from Mepha/Cephalon in the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and Asia. The BtB segment comprises Acino's business with its internally developed products, for which the company also owns the intellectual property rights. Acino develops and produces high-quality medicines with proven active ingredients and modern drug delivery systems and grants licenses for them to leading pharmaceutical and generic pharmaceutical companies worldwide. The technology marketing segment comprises a broad spectrum of fully integrated contract services, including procurement, contract development, production and packaging for companies in the life sciences industry. On behalf of these customers, Acino develops a comprehensive product pipeline on the basis of its special technological know-how. This includes both new types of medicines as well as projects with innovative drug delivery systems for established active ingredients. The production segment is responsible for the manufacturing of products and the supplying of the other three segments, and generates turnover through the reimbursement of its services. The manufacturing costs of products are credited to the production segment at standard prices along with remuneration in the form of a mark-up for materials and production costs.

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