Rain Oncology (Rain Oncology) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $-21.40 (As of May. 17, 2024)

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What is Rain Oncology Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-05-17), Rain Oncology's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $-21.40.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Rain Oncology's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Rain Oncology is N/A.

The industry rank for Rain Oncology's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

RAIN's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Biotechnology industry.
Industry Median: 2.28
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

Rain Oncology Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Rain Oncology's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Rain Oncology Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Rain Oncology Annual Data

Trend

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Rain Oncology Quarterly Data
	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial											-	-	-	-	-

Competitive Comparison of Rain Oncology's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Biotechnology subindustry, Rain Oncology's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Rain Oncology's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Biotechnology Industry

For the Biotechnology industry and Healthcare sector, Rain Oncology's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Rain Oncology's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.

Rain Oncology Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.42%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Rain Oncology's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 3 years was -28.60%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $-1.854.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Rain Oncology's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	=	Free Cash Flow per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Free Cash Flow per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Free Cash Flow per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

-1.854

11.5406

-21.40

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
	=	(-21.4	-	1.21)	/	-21.4
	=	N/A

Rain Oncology (NAS:RAIN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Rain Oncology Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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Rain Oncology (Rain Oncology) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Rain Oncology Inc (NAS:RAIN) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

8000 Jarvis Avenue, Suite 204, Newark, CA, USA, 94560

Website

https://www.rainoncology.com

Rain Oncology Inc is a late-stage precision oncology company developing therapies that target oncogenic drivers for which it is able to genetically select patients it believes will likely benefit. This approach includes using a tumor-agnostic approach to select patients based on their tumors' underlying genetics rather than histology. The company's product candidate, milademetan, is a small molecule, oral inhibitor of MDM2, which is oncogenic in numerous cancers. In addition to milademetan, the company is also developing a preclinical program that is focused on inducing synthetic lethality in cancer cells by inhibiting RAD52.

Executives

Kevin C Tang	10 percent owner	4747 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 210, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Josephine Bruce	officer: Principal Fin. & Acc. Officer	8000 JARVIS AVENUE, SUITE 204, NEWARK CA 94560
Tang Capital Partners Lp	10 percent owner	4747 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 210, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Tang Capital Management Llc	10 percent owner	4747 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 210, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Boxer Capital, Llc	other: See remarks.	12860 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 300, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Boxer Asset Management Inc.	other: See remarks	CAY HOUSE, EP TAYLOR DRIVE N7776, LYFORD CAY, NEW PROVIDENCE C5 00000
Joseph Lewis	other: See remarks.	PO BOX N7776, LYFORD BAHAMAS
Aaron I. Davis	director	12860 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 300, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Erik Atkisson	officer: General Counsel and CCO	C/O EIGER BIOPHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 2155 PARK BLVD., PALO ALTO CA 94306
Franklin M Berger	director	1000 MARINA BLVD, STE 200, BRISBANE CA 94005
Biotechnology Value Fund L P	other: See Explanation of Responses	44 MONTGOMERY STREET, 40TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Avanish Vellanki	director, officer: President and CEO	8000 JARVIS AVENUE, SUITE 204, NEWARK CA 94560
Perceptive Life Sciences Master Fund Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Cormorant Asset Management, Lp	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Gorjan Hrustanovic	director	C/O KYMERA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 ARSENAL YARDS, SUITE 230, WATERTOWN MA 02472