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Alarm.com HoldingsALRM -1.52%94 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $38.83 as of Sep. 21, 2026. GuruFocus rates ALRM with a GF Score™ of 94/100 and a GF Value™ of $66.57 (Modestly Undervalued). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,474 Software companies, Alarm.com Holdings ranks better than 51.02% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
As of today (2026-09-21), Alarm.com Holdings's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $38.83. The stock price of Alarm.com Holdings is $53.14. Therefore, Alarm.com Holdings's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 1.4.
The historical rank and industry rank for Alarm.com Holdings's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
ALRM'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.14 Med: 2.69 Max: 6.48
Current: 1.37
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Alarm.com Holdings was 6.48. The lowest was 1.14. And the median was 2.69.
ALRM's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than 51.02% of 1474
companies
in the Software industry
Industry Median: 1.41
vs ALRM: 1.37
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
Alarm.com Holdings's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
53.14
/
39.449375034514
=
1.35
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Alarm.com Holdings Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
Alarm.com Holdings Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Alarm.com Holdings's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
ALRM vs ADEA, BTDR, GRND: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Software - Application subindustry, Alarm.com Holdings's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Alarm.com Holdings Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Software Industry
For the Software industry and Technology sector, Alarm.com Holdings's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Alarm.com Holdings's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $38.83 mean?
Alarm.com Holdings (ALRM) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $38.83 as of Sep. 21, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Alarm.com Holdings and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Alarm.com Holdings ranks #722 out of 1474 companies in the Software industry, placing it in the top 49%.
Is Alarm.com Holdings' Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
Alarm.com Holdings' current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $38.83. The Software industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.41. Alarm.com Holdings' value of $38.83 is 2653.9% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Alarm.com Holdings ranks #722 out of 1474 companies in the Software industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Alarm.com Holdings has a GF Score™ of 94/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Alarm.com Holdings' Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to ADEA and BTDR?
According to the Software industry distribution chart, Alarm.com Holdings ranks #722 out of 1474 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This puts Alarm.com Holdings in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.41. Alarm.com Holdings' value of $38.83 is 2653.9% above this benchmark. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a Software company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Software companies is 1.41, based on 1,474 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Alarm.com Holdings's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $38.83 is 2653.9% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Alarm.com Holdings and its competitors. For the Software industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.41 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Alarm.com Holdings's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $38.83. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Alarm.com Holdings stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Alarm.com Holdings (ALRM) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $66.57, compared to a current price of $53.14 — trading 20.2% below its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $38.83 and 2653.9% above the Software industry median of 1.41. Alarm.com Holdings' overall GF Score™ is 94/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Alarm.com Holdings (ALRM), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $38.83 as of Sep. 21, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Alarm.com Holdings (ALRM) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Alarm.com Holdings stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $53.14 is trading 20.2% below its estimated GF Value™ of $66.57.
GuruFocus considers Alarm.com Holdings to be Modestly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for ALRM:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $38.83
GF Value™: $66.57 vs. price of $53.14 (20.2% below fair value)
Industry Position: 2653.9% above the Software median (#722 of 1474)
No single metric tells the full story. See the ALRM stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Alarm.com Holdings Inc has a cloud-based platform that offers an expansive suite of IoT solutions addressing world-wide opportunities in the residential, multi-family, small business and enterprise commercial markets. It has two reportable segments: Alarm.com & Other. The Alarm.com segment represents the cloud-based Software platforms for intelligently connected property & related solutions. The other segment is focused on researching, developing & offering residential & commercial automation solutions & energy management products & services in adjacent markets. The majority of revenue is from the Alarm.com segment. The platform allows home & business owners to secure their properties and automate & control an array of connected device.
94GF Score
Get the complete analysis for ALRM
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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