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Keurig Dr PepperKDP -0.12%82 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $30.60 as of Sep. 09, 2026. GuruFocus rates KDP with a GF Score™ of 82/100 and a GF Value™ of $48.46 (Possible Value Trap). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review. Among 76 Beverages - Non-Alcoholic companies, Keurig Dr Pepper ranks better than 57.89% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
As of today (2026-09-09), Keurig Dr Pepper's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $30.60. The stock price of Keurig Dr Pepper is $32.54. Therefore, Keurig Dr Pepper's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 1.1.
The historical rank and industry rank for Keurig Dr Pepper's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
KDP'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.85 Med: 1.36 Max: 10.62
Current: 1.06
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Keurig Dr Pepper was 10.62. The lowest was 0.85. And the median was 1.36.
KDP's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than 57.89% of 76
companies
in the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic industry
Industry Median: 1.23
vs KDP: 1.06
Keurig Dr Pepper (NAS:KDP) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
Keurig Dr Pepper's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
32.54
/
30.598185429871
=
1.06
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Keurig Dr Pepper Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
Keurig Dr Pepper Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Keurig Dr Pepper's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Keurig Dr Pepper Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart
KDP vs COCSF, COKE, CELH: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic subindustry, Keurig Dr Pepper's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Keurig Dr Pepper Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic Industry
For the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Keurig Dr Pepper's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Keurig Dr Pepper's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Keurig Dr Pepper Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $30.60 mean?
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $30.60 as of Sep. 09, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Keurig Dr Pepper and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Keurig Dr Pepper ranks #32 out of 76 companies in the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic industry, placing it in the top 42.1%.
Is Keurig Dr Pepper's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
Keurig Dr Pepper's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $30.60. The Beverages - Non-Alcoholic industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.23. Keurig Dr Pepper's value of $30.60 is 2387.8% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Keurig Dr Pepper ranks #32 out of 76 companies in the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Keurig Dr Pepper has a GF Score™ of 82/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Keurig Dr Pepper's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to COCSF and COKE?
According to the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic industry distribution chart, Keurig Dr Pepper ranks #32 out of 76 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This puts Keurig Dr Pepper in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.23. Keurig Dr Pepper's value of $30.60 is 2387.8% above this benchmark. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a Beverages - Non-Alcoholic company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Beverages - Non-Alcoholic companies is 1.23, based on 76 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Keurig Dr Pepper's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $30.60 is 2387.8% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Keurig Dr Pepper and its competitors. For the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.23 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Keurig Dr Pepper's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $30.60. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Keurig Dr Pepper stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is $48.46, compared to a current price of $32.54 — trading 32.9% below its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $30.60 and 2387.8% above the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic industry median of 1.23. Keurig Dr Pepper's overall GF Score™ is 82/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $30.60 as of Sep. 09, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Keurig Dr Pepper stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $32.54 is trading 32.9% below its estimated GF Value™ of $48.46.
GuruFocus considers Keurig Dr Pepper to be Possible Value Trap.
Key valuation signals for KDP:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $30.60
GF Value™: $48.46 vs. price of $32.54 (32.9% below fair value)
Industry Position: 2387.8% above the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median (#32 of 76)
No single metric tells the full story. See the KDP stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Keurig Dr Pepper was established in 2018 following a merger between Keurig Green Mountain Coffee and Dr Pepper Snapple. The company manufactures and distributes coffee systems (including coffee brewers and single-serve coffee pods) under the Keurig and Green Mountain brands, as well as ready-to-drink beverages including flavored (non-cola) sparkling soft drinks under well-known brands such as Dr Pepper, Snapple, and Canada Dry. On Aug. 25, 2025, the firm announced a definitive agreement to acquire coffeemaker JDE Peet's for $18 billion in cash, with the deal now scheduled to close in April 2026. Following the merger, it plans to split into two US-listed entities to focus on refreshment beverages in North America and global coffee separately.
82GF Score
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