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Origin EnergyOGFGF +2.07%63 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $3.86 as of Sep. 03, 2026. GuruFocus rates OGFGF with a GF Score™ of 63/100 and a GF Value™ of $7.28 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review. Among 381 Utilities - Regulated companies, Origin Energy ranks worse than 77.43% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
As of today (2026-09-03), Origin Energy's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $3.86. The stock price of Origin Energy is $8.4415. Therefore, Origin Energy's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 2.2.
The historical rank and industry rank for Origin Energy's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
OGFGF'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.54 Med: 0.98 Max: 2.19
Current: 2.19
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Origin Energy was 2.19. The lowest was 0.54. And the median was 0.98.
OGFGF's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than 77.43% of 381
companies
in the Utilities - Regulated industry
Industry Median: 1.01
vs OGFGF: 2.19
Origin Energy (OTCPK:OGFGF) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
Origin Energy's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
8.4415
/
3.8429523524739
=
2.20
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Origin Energy Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
Origin Energy Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Origin Energy's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Origin Energy Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart
OGFGF vs SRE, AES: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Utilities - Diversified subindustry, Origin Energy's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Origin Energy Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Utilities - Regulated Industry
For the Utilities - Regulated industry and Utilities sector, Origin Energy's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Origin Energy's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Origin Energy Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $3.86 mean?
Origin Energy (OGFGF) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $3.86 as of Sep. 03, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Origin Energy and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Origin Energy ranks #295 out of 381 companies in the Utilities - Regulated industry, placing it in the top 77.4%.
Is Origin Energy's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
Origin Energy's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $3.86. The Utilities - Regulated industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.01. Origin Energy's value of $3.86 is 282.2% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Origin Energy ranks #295 out of 381 companies in the Utilities - Regulated industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, Origin Energy has a GF Score™ of 63/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Origin Energy's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to SRE and AES?
According to the Utilities - Regulated industry distribution chart, Origin Energy ranks #295 out of 381 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This places Origin Energy in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.01. Origin Energy's value of $3.86 is 282.2% above this benchmark. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for an Utilities - Regulated company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Utilities - Regulated companies is 1.01, based on 381 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Origin Energy's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $3.86 is 282.2% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Origin Energy and its competitors. For the Utilities - Regulated industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 1.01 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Origin Energy's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $3.86. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Origin Energy stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Origin Energy (OGFGF) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $7.28, compared to a current price of $8.44 — trading 16% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $3.86 and 282.2% above the Utilities - Regulated industry median of 1.01. Origin Energy's overall GF Score™ is 63/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Origin Energy (OGFGF), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $3.86 as of Sep. 03, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Origin Energy (OGFGF) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Origin Energy stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $8.44 is trading 16% above its estimated GF Value™ of $7.28.
GuruFocus considers Origin Energy to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for OGFGF:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $3.86
GF Value™: $7.28 vs. price of $8.44 (16% above fair value)
Industry Position: 282.2% above the Utilities - Regulated median (#295 of 381)
No single metric tells the full story. See the OGFGF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Origin Energy is a major vertically integrated Australian energy utility. Its energy retailing business is the largest in Australia, with about 4 million customers and a 33% market share. Its portfolio of base-load, intermediate, and peaking electricity plants is one of the largest in the national electricity market, with a capacity of 6,000 megawatts. Origin also operates and owns 27.5% of Australia Pacific LNG, which owns large coal seam gas fields and LNG export facilities in Queensland.
63GF Score
Get the complete analysis for OGFGF
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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