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Magellan Midstream Partners LP Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $64.85 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-08-12), Magellan Midstream Partners LP's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $64.85.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Magellan Midstream Partners LP's Predictability Rank is 2.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Magellan Midstream Partners LP is 20.39%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Magellan Midstream Partners LP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

MMP' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.22   Med: 0.49   Max: 0.74
Current: 0.8

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Magellan Midstream Partners LP was 0.74. The lowest was 0.22. And the median was 0.49.

MMP's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked worse than
77.78% of 27 companies
in the Oil & Gas industry
Industry Median: 0.40 vs MMP: 0.80

Magellan Midstream Partners LP Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Magellan Midstream Partners LP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Magellan Midstream Partners LP Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - 140.97 91.09 80.91

Magellan Midstream Partners LP Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 89.83 92.15 80.91 70.60 64.85

Magellan Midstream Partners LP Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 9%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 8.70%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 8.70% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 8.70%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $3.720.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the Earnings Per Share without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Magellan Midstream Partners LP's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.087)/(1+0.09) = 0.99724770642202
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.09) = 0.95412844036697

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=3.720*17.4323
=64.85

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(64.85-51.63)/64.85
=20.39 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Magellan Midstream Partners LP  (NYSE:MMP) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Magellan Midstream Partners LP Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

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Magellan Midstream Partners LP Business Description

Magellan Midstream Partners LP logo
Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
One Williams Center, P.O. Box 22186, Tulsa, OK, USA, 74121-2186
Magellan Midstream Partners is a master limited partnership that operates pipelines and storage terminals in the Central and Eastern United States. Its assets transport, store, and distribute refined petroleum products and crude and earn a fee-based stream of cash flows. Assets include the country's longest petroleum pipeline network and several crude oil pipelines. Refined products make about 70% of operating margin, with the remainder mainly crude-oil pipelines.
Executives
Somasundaram Sivasankaran director C/O APERGY CORPORATION 2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD, BLD 4, FL 9 THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Roles Mark B officer: Senior Vice President ONE WILLIAMS CENTER SUITE 2800 TULSA OK 74172
Pearson Michael C officer: Senior Vice President ONE WILLIAMS CENTER SUITE 2800 TULSA OK 74172
Joung Chansoo director C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10017
Holman Jeffrey L officer: Senior Vice President & CFO ONE WILLIAMS CENTER TULSA OK 74172
Little Melanie A officer: Senior Vice President ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, SUITE 2800 TULSA OK 74172
Guay Edward J director ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, SUITE 2800 TULSA OK 74172
Gobillot Lori director 5103 CITY WEST BLVD. 4TH FLOOR HOUSTON TX 77042
Aaronson Michael officer: Senior Vice President 16666 NORTHCHASE DRIVE HOUSTON TX 77060
Milford Aaron L officer: Senior Vice President & CFO ONE WILLIAMS CENTER TULSA OK 74172
Methvin Stacy P. director 777 HIDDEN RIDGE IRVING TX 75038
Barnes Robert L officer: Senior Vice President ONE WILLIAMS CENTER SUITE 2800 TULSA OK 74172
Osborne Michael P officer: Senior VP & CFO ONE WILLIAMS CENTER SUITE 2800 TULSA OK 74172
May Douglas J officer: Senior Vice President ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, SUITE 4100 TULSA OK 74172
Davied Larry J officer: Senior Vice President ONE WILLIAMS CENTER SUITE 2800 TULSA OK 74172

Magellan Midstream Partners LP Headlines

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