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Intercept Pharmaceuticals (NAS:ICPT) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $-17.80 (As of Today)
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As of today (2023-06-03), Intercept Pharmaceuticals's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $-17.80.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Intercept Pharmaceuticals's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Intercept Pharmaceuticals is N/A.

The industry rank for Intercept Pharmaceuticals's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

ICPT's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked *
in the Biotechnology industry.
Industry Median: 2.68
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

Intercept Pharmaceuticals Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Intercept Pharmaceuticals's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Intercept Pharmaceuticals Annual Data
Trend Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Intercept Pharmaceuticals Quarterly Data
Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Intercept Pharmaceuticals Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5.70%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 5.70% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 5.70%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $-1.361.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Intercept Pharmaceuticals's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.057)/(1+0.1) = 0.96090909090909
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=-1.361*13.0777
=-17.80

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(-17.8-11.12)/-17.8
=N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Intercept Pharmaceuticals  (NAS:ICPT) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Intercept Pharmaceuticals Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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Intercept Pharmaceuticals (NAS:ICPT) Business Description

Intercept Pharmaceuticals logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
10 Hudson Yards, 37th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10001
Intercept Pharmaceuticals is a biotech company focused on developing and commercializing novel therapeutics to treat chronic liver diseases. Obeticholic acid, or OCA, is an agonist of the farnesoid X receptor. OCA was approved as Ocaliva to treat primary biliary cirrhosis in 2016 and is being developed for a variety of chronic liver diseases, including nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, or NASH.
Executives
Andrew Saik officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer 640 LEE ROAD, CHESTERBROOK PA 19087
M Michelle Berrey officer: President, R&D and CMO 303A COLLEGE ROAD EAST, PRINCETON NJ 08450
Dagmar Rosa-bjorkeson director C/O BAXALTA INCORPORATED, 1200 LAKESIDE DRIVE, BANNOCKBURN IL 60015
Rocco Venezia officer: Chief Accounting Officer C/O INTERCEPT PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 10 HUDSON YARDS, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Lisa Defrancesco officer: SVP, IR & Corp. Affairs C/O INTERCEPT PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 10 HUDSON YARDS, FLOOR 37, NEW YORK NY 10001
Linda M Richardson officer: EVP & Chief Commercial Officer 2505 MERIDIAN PKWY, SUITE 340, C/O CHIMERIX, INC., DURHAM NC 27713
Jared Freedberg officer: General Counsel and Secretary 300 THE AMERICAN ROAD, MORRIS PLAINS NJ 07950
Bryan Ball officer: Chief Quality Officer 300 THE AMERICAN ROAD, MORRIS PLAINS NJ 07950
Paolo Fundaro director, 10 percent owner C/O GENEXTRA S.P.A.,, VIA G. DE GRASSI, 11, MILAN L6 20123
Keith Michael Gottesdiener director 900 FIFTH AVENUE, #8C, NEW YORK NY 10021
Luca Benatti director C/O INTERCEPT PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 450 WEST 15TH STREET, SUITE 505, NEW YORK NY 10011
Daniel G Welch director 4611 UNIVERSITY DR, 4 UNIVERSITY PLACE, DURHAM NC 27707
Daniel Bradbury director BIOBRIT, LLC, 2223 AVENIDA DE LA PLAYA, SUITE 108, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Nancy Miller-rich director C/O INTERCEPT PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 10 HUDSON YARDS, 37TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10001
Gino Santini director C/O AMAG PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 1100 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451

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