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Change Healthcare Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $14.63 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-09-27), Change Healthcare's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $14.63.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Change Healthcare's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Change Healthcare is -87.25%.

The industry rank for Change Healthcare's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:


Change Healthcare Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Change Healthcare's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Change Healthcare Annual Data
Trend Mar17 Mar18 Mar19 Mar20 Mar21 Mar22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Premium Member Only - - - - -

Change Healthcare Quarterly Data
Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Change Healthcare Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => For companies with Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years less than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $1.172.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Change Healthcare's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.1) = 0.95454545454545
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=1.172*12.485
=14.63

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(14.63-27.395)/14.63
=-87.25 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Change Healthcare  (NAS:CHNG) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Change Healthcare Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Change Healthcare's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Change Healthcare Business Description

Change Healthcare logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
424 Church Street, Suite 1400, Nashville, TN, USA, 37219
Change Healthcare is a spin-off of various healthcare processing and consulting services acquired by McKesson over numerous years. Recently, these processing assets were contributed to a joint venture and in June 2019 public shares were issued with McKesson retaining the majority interest. As of the end of the March 2020 quarter, McKesson distributed all its interest in the public processor. Core services consist of insurance (healthcare) claim clearinghouse for healthcare payers in addition to administrative and consulting services to assist healthcare providers improve reimbursement coding, billing, and collections.
Executives
Byers Tracy officer: SVP and GM, Enterprise Imaging C/O CHANGE HEALTHCARE INC. 424 CHURCH STREET, SUITE 1400 NASHVILLE TN 37219
Domenici Nella director C/O ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS NEW YORK NY 10105
Martin Steven B. officer: EVP, Enterprise Technology 3055 LEBANON PIKE SUITE 1000 NASHVILLE TN 37214
Mckenzie Diana director METLIFE 200 PARK AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10166
Blackstone Family Investment Partnership Vi L.p. 10 percent owner C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP 345 PARK AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10154
O'reilly Roderick H. officer: See Remarks C/O CHANGE HEALTHCARE INC. 3055 LEBANON PIKE, SUITE 1000 NASHVILLE TN 37214
Bcp Vi Side-by-side Gp L.l.c. 10 percent owner C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP 345 PARK AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10154
Mcenery Thomas officer: EVP & Chief Marketing Officer
Simpkins Neil P director C/O BLACKSTONE GROUP 345 PARK AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10154
Whitley-taylor Linda officer: EVP & Chief People Officer AMERIGROUP CORPORATION 4425 CORPORATION LANE VIRGINIA BEACH VA 23462
Roe Phillip W. director 20 BURTON HILLS BOULEVARD SUITE 100 NASHVILLE TN 37215
Joshi Kriten officer: See Remarks C/O CHANGE HEALTHCARE INC. 3055 LEBANON PIKE, SUITE 1000 NASHVILLE TN 37214
Rareshide Paul officer: SVP, Corporate Controller C/O CHANGE HEALTHCARE INC. 3055 LEBANON PIKE, SUITE 1000 NASHVILLE TN 37214
Laur Thomas officer: See Remarks C/O CHANGE HEALTHCARE INC. 3055 LEBANON PIKE, SUITE 1000 NASHVILLE TN 37214
Calhoun August officer: See Remarks C/O CHANGE HEALTHCARE INC. 3055 LEBANON PIKE, SUITE 1000 NASHVILLE TN 37214

Change Healthcare Headlines

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