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Academy Sports and Outdoors (NAS:ASO) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

: $5.45 (As of Today)
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As of today (2023-04-02), Academy Sports and Outdoors's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $5.45.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history with more than 5 years. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, the data will not be stored into our database.

Academy Sports and Outdoors's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Academy Sports and Outdoors is -1,097.25%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Academy Sports and Outdoors's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:


Academy Sports and Outdoors Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Academy Sports and Outdoors's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Academy Sports and Outdoors Annual Data
Trend Jan18 Jan19 Jan20 Jan21 Jan22 Jan23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
Premium Member Only - - - - -

Academy Sports and Outdoors Quarterly Data
Jan18 Jan19 Jul19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jul20 Oct20 Jan21 Apr21 Jul21 Oct21 Jan22 Apr22 Jul22 Oct22 Jan23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison

For the Specialty Retail subindustry, Academy Sports and Outdoors's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Academy Sports and Outdoors Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Academy Sports and Outdoors's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Academy Sports and Outdoors's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) falls in comparison to its industry or sector. The grey bar indicates the Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)'s extreme value range as defined by GuruFocus.



Academy Sports and Outdoors Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. H-Model formula is applied here, in which dividends are used in the calculation with two stage of dividend growth. The calculation for H-Model DDM valuation shows as below.

The H-model formula consists of two parts. The first component of the equation adds the value from the high growth rate period, which is called growth stage. The second component of the formula considers the value of the stock based on the long-term growth rate, which is called the terminal stage. It ignores the high growth rate period. In the growth stage, the dividends of company grows at a faster rate. As it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average dividend growth rate in the past 5 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 5 years was 0.00% which is lower than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: dividends per share = $0.300.
GuruFocus DCF calculator applies H-Model to the calculation here, using dividends per share TTM as the default.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Academy Sports and Outdoors's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) = Dividends per Share *( g1 - g2 ) / ( d - g2 ) * y1 / 2
+ Dividends per Share * ( 1 + g2 ) / ( d - g2 )
= 0.300 * (0.05 - 0.04) / (0.1 - 0.04) * 10 / 2
+ 0.300 * ( 1 + 0.04) / (0.1 - 0.04)
= 5.45

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)-Current Price) /Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
= (5.45 - 65.25) / 5.45
= -1,097.25 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Academy Sports and Outdoors  (NAS:ASO) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 5 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Academy Sports and Outdoors Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Academy Sports and Outdoors's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Academy Sports and Outdoors (NAS:ASO) Business Description

Academy Sports and Outdoors logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1800 North Mason Road, Katy, TX, USA, 77449
Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc is engaged in the retail business of sporting goods and outdoor recreation products. The company offers outdoor clothing, backpacks, sunglasses, luggage items, shooting equipment, fishing equipment, boating and water sports equipment, backyard recreation products, outdoor cooking equipment, fitness equipment, electronic items, dog supplies, and other products.
Executives
Theresa Palermo director 12420 STONEBRIDGE RD, ROANKE IN 46783
Christopher Lee Turner director 1441 GARDINER LANE, LOUISVILLE KY 40213
Sharen J Turney director THREE LIMITED PARKWAY, COLUMBUS OH 43230
Beryl Raff director 5555 DARROW RD, HUDSON OH 44236
Thomas M Nealon director 6501 LEGACY DRIVE, PLANO TX 75024
Sherry L. Harriman officer: SVP, Logistics & Supply Chain C/O ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC., 1800 N MASON ROAD, KATY TX 77449
Wendy A. Beck director C/O NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE HOLDINGS LTD., 7665 CORPORATE CENTER DRIVE, MIAMI FL 33126
Kkr 2006 Allstar Blocker L.p. 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Kkr 2006 Fund (allstar) L.p. 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Heather A. Davis officer: VP, Controller C/O ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC., 1800 NORTH MASON ROAD, KATY TX 77449
Allstar Llc 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Allstar Co-invest Gp Llc 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Jeffrey C. Tweedy director C/O ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC., 1800 NORTH MASON ROAD, KATY TX 77449
William S. Ennis officer: See Remarks C/O ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC., 1800 NORTH MASON ROAD, KATY TX 77449
Allstar Co-invest Blocker L.p. 10 percent owner C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 30 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001

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